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Interacting Infrastructure Disruptions Due to Environmental Events and Long‐Term Climate Change
Earth's Future Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001652
Michelle A. Hummel 1 , Alain Tcheukam Siwe 2 , Aaron Chow 2 , Mark T. Stacey 3 , Samer M. Madanat 2
Affiliation  

Climate change places additional stress on critical infrastructure systems as demand for resources (e.g., water and electricity) increases and environmental disruptions (e.g., flooding and wildfires) become more frequent and severe. Interconnected infrastructure systems may be particularly vulnerable, as disruptions in one system can cascade to other systems and increase the severity of impacts. To ensure continued functionality, infrastructure systems must be designed or adapted to account for changing environmental conditions, with consideration for the interactions between systems. For this study, we examine the dependencies between shoreline protective infrastructure and transportation infrastructure in the context of sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area. Shoreline modifications implemented in one location can cause hydrodynamic feedbacks that exacerbate flooding and associated disruptions elsewhere. On the other hand, the decision not to implement shoreline protection can cause local flooding of roadways that leads to traffic feedbacks and system‐wide travel delays. We compare the magnitude of these feedbacks, in terms of vehicle hours traveled (VHT), across a range of county‐level shoreline scenarios to characterize the effects of one county's shoreline adaptation decisions on its neighbors. Our results show that VHT increases by as much as 7.2% due to hydrodynamic feedbacks and 10.7% due to traffic feedbacks. Comparing these effects for each scenario allows for targeted decision‐making about adaptation approaches that account for both the local effects of flood disruptions and the regional network effects driven by infrastructure interactions.

中文翻译:

环境事件和长期气候变化导致的基础设施相互作用中断

随着对资源(例如水和电)的需求增加以及环境破坏(例如洪水和野火)变得更加频繁和严重,气候变化给关键基础设施系统带来了更多压力。互连的基础架构系统可能特别脆弱,因为一个系统中的中断可能会级联到其他系统并增加影响的严重性。为了确保持续的功能,必须设计或调整基础结构系统以考虑到环境条件的变化,同时考虑系统之间的交互作用。在本研究中,我们研究了旧金山湾地区海平面上升的背景下海岸线保护基础设施和运输基础设施之间的依存关系。在一处实施的海岸线改造会引起水动力反馈,加剧其他地方的洪水和相关破坏。另一方面,不实施海岸线保护的决定可能会导致道路局部洪水泛滥,从而导致交通反馈和全系统旅行延误。我们根据一系列县级海岸线情景中的行车时数(VHT)比较了这些反馈的强度,以表征一个县的海岸线适应决策对其邻国的影响。我们的结果表明,由于水动力反馈,VHT增加了7.2%,而由于交通反馈,增加了10.7%。
更新日期:2020-10-08
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