Abstract Cocoa is a crop that serves as a major source of income in some countries, but its production has been affected by red flour beetles, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst). In this study, we aimed to predict the global potential distribution of T. castaneum under the current climate and in response to climate change (2050 and 2100). In addition, we attempted to use the results for estimating damage and economic losses in the major cocoa beans-producing countries. The CLIMEX model was used to evaluate the climatic suitability of regions for T. castaneum, and the economic damage was estimated by incorporating a series of published models and published data. The results showed that the potential distribution of T. castaneum was consistent with that of cocoa beans-producing countries, and as expected, at the local-level, T. castaneum was concentrated in cocoa cultivation areas. It was estimated that up to 50% damage to cocoa beans and economic loss of 3.16 billion US dollars due to production loss could occur. This study is the first attempt to estimate the economic damage to cocoa bean production by predicting the potential distribution of T. castaneum. Further, this study not only provides insight to combine the potential distribution of a species and an estimation of the related economics, but also provides basic data for establishing an effective monitoring/controlling strategy for preventing damage by T. castaneum.

中文翻译：

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评估可可豆生产的经济损失，随着气候变化而改变 Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) 的空间分布

摘要 可可是一些国家的主要收入来源作物，但其生产受到红粉甲虫 Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) 的影响。在本研究中，我们旨在预测当前气候下和应对气候变化（2050 年和 2100 年）T. castaneum 的全球潜在分布。此外，我们尝试使用这些结果来估计主要可可豆生产国的损害和经济损失。CLIMEX 模型被用于评估 T. castaneum 地区的气候适宜性，并通过结合一系列已发布的模型和已发布的数据来估计经济损失。结果表明，T. castaneum 的潜在分布与可可豆生产国的分布一致，正如预期的那样，在地方层面，T. castaneum 的潜在分布与可可豆生产国的分布一致。栗子集中在可可种植区。据估计，由于生产损失，可可豆可能遭受高达 50% 的损失和 31.6 亿美元的经济损失。本研究首次尝试通过预测 T. castaneum 的潜在分布来估计对可可豆生产的经济损失。此外，这项研究不仅提供了将物种的潜在分布与相关经济学估计相结合的见解，而且还为建立有效的监测/控制策略以防止 T. castaneum 的损害提供了基础数据。本研究首次尝试通过预测 T. castaneum 的潜在分布来估计对可可豆生产的经济损失。此外，这项研究不仅提供了将物种的潜在分布与相关经济学估计相结合的见解，而且还为建立有效的监测/控制策略以防止 T. castaneum 的损害提供了基础数据。本研究首次尝试通过预测 T. castaneum 的潜在分布来估计对可可豆生产的经济损失。此外，这项研究不仅提供了将物种的潜在分布与相关经济学估计相结合的见解，而且还为建立有效的监测/控制策略以防止 T. castaneum 的损害提供了基础数据。