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Performance of multisite stochastic precipitation models for a tropical monsoon region
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01871-4
Tue M. Vu , Ashok K. Mishra

Stochastic weather generator (SWG) produces synthetic time series of weather data based on the statistical characteristics of observed weather for a given location. Although SWG models are extensively evaluated and applied in different hydro-climate related studies, they often ignore the spatial correlation between weather patterns observed at multiple locations. This can limit the value of some spatial impact assessments such as flood modeling, agricultural crop modeling, water resources management and urban infrastructure design. To address such limitations, multisite SWG models are implemented to preserve the spatial characteristics of weather variables. In this study, we compared the performance of three multisite stochastic precipitation models, which includes modified Wilks model (modWilks), RainSim V3 (RSIM) and perturbed K-Nearest Neighbor (pKNN) models. The performances of these models are investigated for a study area located in the tropical monsoon climate region over Central Highland, Vietnam. The models are evaluated based on their performance for simulating precipitation occurrence and amount statistics on a wet day, extreme cumulative wet/dry days, transition and joint probability of wet/dry state, cross-correlation across all sites as well as the behavior of precipitation amount in relation to neighboring station state. The performance of model depends on the type of the precipitation characteristics, for example, the RSIM model performed well in term of the mean precipitation intensity. Overall, the pKNN model outperformed other models in term of temporal statistics, spatial characteristics, as well as extreme events measured based on Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves.



中文翻译:

热带季风区多站点随机降水模型的性能

随机天气生成器(SWG)根据给定位置的观测天气的统计特征来生成天气数据的合成时间序列。尽管SWG模型得到了广泛的评估并应用于不同的与水气候相关的研究中,但它们通常忽略了在多个位置观测到的天气模式之间的空间相关性。这可能会限制一些空间影响评估的价值,例如洪水模型,农作物模型,水资源管理和城市基础设施设计。为了解决此类限制,实施了多站点SWG模型以保留天气变量的空间特征。在这项研究中,我们比较了三种多站点随机降水模型(包括修正的Wilks模型(modWilks),RainSim V3(RSIM)和扰动的K最近邻居(pKNN)模型。在位于越南中部高原的热带季风气候区的一个研究区域,对这些模型的性能进行了研究。基于模型的性能来评估这些模型,这些模型用于模拟降雨发生和湿日,极端累积湿/干日,湿/干状态的过渡和联合概率,所有站点之间的互相关以及降水行为的统计数据。相对于相邻站状态的数量。模型的性能取决于降水特征的类型,例如,RSIM模型在平均降水强度方面表现良好。总体而言,在时间统计,空间特征,

更新日期:2020-09-11
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