A multi-decadal simulation of ocean circulation in the northern Gulf of Mexico produces strong submesoscale instabilities in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya plume fronts. The model skill in reproducing these submesoscale frontal eddies over the Texas-Louisiana shelf is assessed using simulated and observed salinity and velocity fields as a way to investigate simulation accuracy and quantify the variability of frontal eddies. The model successfully reproduces mean salinity structure observed in multi-year densely sampled CTD profiles. Variability associated with submesoscale eddies is the largest source of error in predicted salinity. On the other hand, the model is statistically able to reproduce the magnitude and characteristics of frontal eddies; metrics for eddy kinetic energy are similar between the observations and simulation, and observed horizontal salinity gradients have similar occurrence rates in the model when sampled in a manner similar to the observations. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of frontal eddies is associated with the volume of freshwater onto the shelf and wind stress. Wind stress, the highest in winter and lowest in summer, contributes to the suppression of baroclinic instability during non-summer seasons. River streamflow, highest in spring, creates strong horizontal and vertical density gradients. These strong horizontal density gradients, along with weak seasonal upwelling-favorable winds that tend to broaden the plume, are the primary factors in exciting submesoscale instabilities during summer on the Texas-Louisiana shelf. At decadal scales, streamflow, EKE, and salinity gradients have a positive correlation suggesting that long-term variability of frontal eddies may be influenced remotely by inter-annual variability in the Mississippi River outflow.

墨西哥湾北部海洋环流的多年代模拟结果在密西西比河/阿查法拉亚羽羽前沿产生了严重的亚中尺度不稳定性。使用模拟和观察到的盐度和速度场评估了在德克萨斯-路易斯安那架子上复制这些亚中尺度额流涡流的模型技巧，以此作为研究模拟准确性和量化额流涡度的方法。该模型成功重现了在多年密集采样的CTD剖面图中观察到的平均盐度结构。亚尺度尺度涡旋相关的变异性是预测盐度误差的最大来源。另一方面，该模型在统计上能够再现额涡的大小和特征。观测和模拟之间的涡动能指标相似，当以类似于观测值的方式进行采样时，模型中观测到的盐度和观测到的水平盐度梯度在模型中的发生率相似。正面涡流的季节变化和年际变化与架子上淡水的体积和风的压力有关。冬季最高和夏季最低的风应力有助于抑制非夏季的斜压不稳定。春季最高的河流流量会产生强烈的水平和垂直密度梯度。这些强的水平密度梯度，加上弱的季节性上升气流（倾向于使羽流变宽），是夏季德克萨斯州路易斯安那架子上激发亚中尺度不稳定性的主要因素。在十年尺度上，流量，EKE，