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Early detection of influenza outbreak using time derivative of incidence.
EPJ Data Science ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-11 , DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00246-7
Woo-Sik Son 1 , Ji-Eun Park 2 , Okyu Kwon 1
Affiliation  

For mitigation strategies of an influenza outbreak, it can be helpful to understand the characteristics of regional and age-group-specific spread. In South Korea, however, there has been no official statistic related to it. In this study, we extract the time series of influenza incidence from National Health Insurance Service claims database, which consists of all medical and prescription drug-claim records for all South Korean population. The extracted time series contains the number of new patients by region (250 city-county-districts) and age-group (0–4, 5–19, 20–64, 65+) within a week. The number of cases of influenza (2009–2017) is 12,282,356. For computing an onset of influenza outbreak by region and age-group, we propose a novel method for early outbreak detection, in which the onset of outbreak is detected as a sudden change in the time derivative of incidence. The advantage of it over the cumulative sum and the exponentially weighted moving average control charts, which have been widely used for the early outbreak detection of infectious diseases, is that information on the previous non-epidemic periods are not necessary. Then, we show that the metro area and 5–19 age-group are earlier than the rural area and other age-groups for the start of the influenza outbreak. Also, the metro area and 5–19 age-group peak earlier than the rural area and other age-groups. These results would be helpful to design a surveillance system for timely early warning of an influenza outbreak in South Korea.

中文翻译:

使用发病时间的时间导数来早期发现流感爆发。

对于流感爆发的缓解策略,了解区域和特定年龄组传播的特征可能会有所帮助。但是,在韩国,没有与此相关的官方统计数据。在这项研究中,我们从国民健康保险服务理赔数据库中提取了流感发生的时间序列,该数据库包含所有韩国人口的所有医疗和处方药理赔记录。提取的时间序列包含一周内按地区(250个市县)和年龄组(0-4、5-19、20-64、65岁以上)的新患者数量。2009-2017年流感病例数为12,282,356。为了计算按地区和年龄段划分的流感爆发的发病率,我们提出了一种新颖的早期发现流感爆发的方法,其中爆发的发作被检测为发病时间导数的突然变化。相对于累计和按指数加权的移动平均值控制图(已广泛用于传染病的早期暴发检测)的优势在于,不需要有关先前非流行时期的信息。然后,我们表明,在爆发流感爆发时,市区和5-19岁年龄段早于农村地区和其他年龄段。此外,都市圈和5-19岁年龄组的高峰时间早于农村地区和其他年龄组。这些结果将有助于设计一个监控系统,以便及时预警韩国的流感爆发。相对于累计和按指数加权的移动平均值控制图(已广泛用于传染病的早期暴发检测)的优势在于,不需要有关先前非流行时期的信息。然后,我们表明,在爆发流感爆发时,市区和5-19岁年龄段早于农村地区和其他年龄段。此外,都市圈和5-19岁年龄组的高峰时间早于农村地区和其他年龄组。这些结果将有助于设计一个监控系统,以便及时预警韩国的流感爆发。相对于累计和按指数加权的移动平均值控制图(已广泛用于传染病的早期暴发检测)的优势在于,不需要有关先前非流行时期的信息。然后,我们表明,在爆发流感爆发时,市区和5-19岁年龄段早于农村地区和其他年龄段。此外,都市圈和5-19岁年龄组的高峰时间早于农村地区和其他年龄组。这些结果将有助于设计一个监控系统,以便及时预警韩国的流感爆发。我们显示,在流感爆发初期,市区和5-19岁年龄段早于农村地区和其他年龄段。此外,都市圈和5-19岁年龄组的高峰时间早于农村地区和其他年龄组。这些结果将有助于设计一个监控系统,以便及时预警韩国的流感爆发。我们显示,在流感爆发初期,市区和5-19岁年龄段早于农村地区和其他年龄段。此外,都市圈和5-19岁年龄组的高峰时间早于农村地区和其他年龄组。这些结果将有助于设计一个监控系统,以便及时预警韩国的流感爆发。
更新日期:2020-09-11
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