The Trinity nuclear test, conducted in 1945, exposed residents of New Mexico to varying degrees of radioactive fallout. Companion papers in this issue have detailed the results of a dose reconstruction that has estimated tissue-specific radiation absorbed doses to residents of New Mexico from internal and external exposure to radioactive fallout in the first year following the Trinity test when more than 90% of the lifetime dose was received. Estimated radiation doses depended on geographic location, race/ethnicity, and age at the time of the test. Here, these doses were applied to sex- and organ-specific risk coefficients (without applying a dose and dose rate effectiveness factor to extrapolate from a population with high-dose/high-dose rates to those with low-dose/low-dose rates) and combined with baseline cancer rates and published life tables to estimate and project the range of radiation-related excess cancers among 581,489 potentially exposed residents of New Mexico. The total lifetime baseline number of all solid cancers [excluding thyroid and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC)] was estimated to be 183,000 from 1945 to 2034. Estimates of ranges of numbers of radiation-related excess cancers and corresponding attributable fractions from 1945 to 2034 incorporate various sources of uncertainty. We estimated 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of excess cancer cases to be 210 to 460 for all solid cancers (except thyroid cancer and NMSC), 80 to 530 for thyroid cancer, and up to 10 for leukemia (except chronic lymphocytic leukemia), with corresponding attributable fractions ranging from 0.12% to 0.25%, 3.6% to 20%, and 0.02% to 0.31%, respectively. In the counties of Guadalupe, Lincoln, San Miguel, Socorro, and Torrance, which received the greatest fallout deposition, the 90% UI for the projected fraction of thyroid cancers attributable to radioactive fallout from the Trinity test was estimated to be from 17% to 58%. Attributable fractions for cancer types varied by race/ethnicity, but 90% UIs overlapped for all race/ethnicity groups for each cancer grouping. Thus, most cancers that have occurred or will occur among persons exposed to Trinity fallout are likely to be cancers unrelated to exposures from the Trinity nuclear test. While these ranges are based on the most detailed dose reconstruction to date and rely largely on methods previously established through scientific committee agreement, challenges inherent in the dose estimation, and assumptions relied upon both in the risk projection and incorporation of uncertainty are important limitations in quantifying the range of radiation-related excess cancer risk.

中文翻译：

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从新墨西哥州居民暴露于Trinity放射性尘埃后的预计癌症风险。

1945年进行的三位一体核试验使新墨西哥州的居民受到不同程度的放射性尘埃影响。该期的同伴论文详细介绍了剂量重建的结果，该剂量重建的结果估计了三位一体试验后第一年内外暴露于放射性尘埃后对新墨西哥州居民的组织特异性辐射吸收剂量，当时90％以上接受终生剂量。估计的辐射剂量取决于测试时的地理位置，种族/民族和年龄。这里，将这些剂量应用于特定性别和器官的风险系数（不应用剂量和剂量率有效因子从高剂量/高剂量率人群推断到低剂量/低剂量率人群）结合基线癌症发生率和已发布的生命表，以估计和预测新墨西哥州581,489名潜在接触居民中与辐射有关的过量癌症的范围。从1945年到2034年，所有实体癌（不包括甲状腺癌和非黑色素瘤皮肤癌（NMSC））的总生存期基线数估计为183,000。从1945年至2034年，估计与辐射有关的过量癌的数目范围和相应的可归因分数2034年纳入了各种不确定性来源。我们估计，所有实体癌（甲状腺癌和NMSC除外）的超额癌症病例的90％不确定区间（UIs）为210至460，甲状腺癌为80至530，白血病为10（慢性淋巴细胞性白血病除外），相应的归属比例分别为0.12％至0.25％，3.6％至20％和0.02％至0.31％。在瓜达卢佩州，林肯州，圣米格尔州，索科罗州和托伦斯州的尘埃沉积最多的县中，三位一体试验的放射性尘埃占甲状腺癌预计比例的90％UI估计为17％至58％。癌症类型的归因分数因种族/民族而异，但每个癌症分组的所有种族/民族的UI重叠90％。从而，暴露于Trinity尘埃的人中已经发生或将要发生的大多数癌症很可能是与Trinity核试验暴露无关的癌症。尽管这些范围是基于迄今为止最详细的剂量重建，并且很大程度上依赖于先前通过科学委员会达成的共识建立的方法，但剂量估算所固有的挑战以及风险预测和不确定性的合并所依赖的假设是量化时的重要限制与辐射有关的癌症风险范围。