Governments around the world restricted movement of people, using social distancing and lockdowns, to help stem the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We examine crime effects for one UK police force area in comparison to 5-year averages. There is variation in the onset of change by crime type, some declining from the WHO ‘global pandemic’ announcement of 11 March, others later. By 1 week after the 23 March lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with variation: shoplifting (− 62%), theft (− 52%), domestic abuse (− 45%), theft from vehicle (− 43%), assault (− 36%), burglary dwelling (− 25%) and burglary non-dwelling (− 25%). We use Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to calculate the mobility elasticity of crime for four crime types, finding shoplifting and other theft inelastic but responsive to reduced retail sector mobility (MEC = 0.84, 0.71 respectively), burglary dwelling elastic to increases in residential area mobility (− 1), with assault inelastic but responsive to reduced workplace mobility (0.56). We theorise that crime rate changes were primarily caused by those in mobility, suggesting a mobility theory of crime change in the pandemic. We identify implications for crime theory, policy and future research.

中文翻译：

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犯罪与冠状病毒：社交距离、封锁和犯罪的流动性弹性

世界各国政府通过社交距离和封锁措施限制人员流动，以帮助遏制全球冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 大流行。我们与 5 年的平均值相比，研究了一个英国警察部队区域的犯罪影响。犯罪类型的变化开始有所不同，有些从 3 月 11 日世卫组织的“全球大流行”公告开始有所下降，有些则较晚。到 3 月 23 日封锁后 1 周，所有记录在案的犯罪率均下降了 41%，但有所不同：入店行窃 (− 62%)、盗窃 (− 52%)、家庭虐待 (− 45%)、车辆盗窃 (− 43%) ，袭击（- 36％），入室盗窃（- 25％）和入室盗窃（- 25％）。我们使用 Google Covid-19 社区流动性报告来计算四种犯罪类型的犯罪流动弹性，发现入店行窃和其他盗窃没有弹性，但对零售业流动性降低有反应（分别为 MEC = 0.84、0.71），入室盗窃对住宅区流动性增加有弹性（- 1），攻击无弹性但对工作场所流动性降低有反应（0.56）。我们推测犯罪率的变化主要是由流动性引起的，这表明了大流行中犯罪变化的流动性理论。我们确定对犯罪理论、政策和未来研究的影响。