This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1–2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and the euro area. The literature has traditionally highlighted the influence of US monetary policy on driving cross-border bank flows, and more recently the importance of both US and Euro Area (EA) financial/banking sectors’ related variables. Our contribution is the simultaneous analysis of the role of these US and EA drivers, as well as their interactions with real sector shocks. We corroborate the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on cross-border lending to EMs, but we find that EA monetary policy seems to have an impact mostly on Emerging Europe, reflecting the fact that cross-border lending to most other EM regions is dollar denominated. We also find that real sector shocks in both the US and EA trigger an increase in cross-border lending, but less in EA when modeling the financial sector. Finally, for financial sector shocks, such as those associated with a decrease in bank leverage, our results indicate a broad-based overall contraction of cross-border lending if the shock originates in the US, and heterogenous effects across borrowing regions if the shock originates in the EA.

本文通过评估美国和欧元区的货币，金融和实体部门冲击的影响，分析了1990年1季度至2014年4季度期间向49个新兴市场（EM）跨境银行贷款的驱动力。传统上，文献着重强调了美国货币政策对推动跨境银行流动的影响，最近强调了美国和欧元区金融/银行部门相关变量的重要性。我们的贡献是同时分析这些美国和EA驱动因素的作用，以及它们与实际行业冲击的相互作用。我们证实了美国收紧货币政策对新兴市场国家跨境贷款的负面影响，但我们发现EA货币政策似乎主要对新兴欧洲产生了影响，反映了对大多数其他新兴市场地区的跨境贷款以美元计价的事实。我们还发现，在美国和EA的实际部门冲击中，跨境贷款增加，而在对金融部门进行建模时，EA的冲击较小。最后，对于金融部门的冲击，例如与银行杠杆降低相关的冲击，我们的结果表明，如果冲击起源于美国，则跨境贷款的总体总体收缩程度较大；如果冲击源自起源，则跨借贷地区的异质效应在EA中。