This article, written during the COVID‐19 epidemic, provides a general introduction to the long‐term history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the spectacular long‐term improvements in life expectancy since 1750, primarily with reference to English history. The story is a fundamentally optimistic one. In 2019 global life expectancy was approaching 73 years. In 1800 it was probably about 30. To understand the origins of this transition, we have to look at the historical sequence by which so many causes of premature death have been vanquished over time. In England that story begins much earlier than often supposed, in the years around 1600. The first two ‘victories’ were over famine and plague. However, economic changes with negative influences on mortality meant that, despite this, life expectancies were either falling or stable between the late sixteenth and mid eighteenth centuries. The late eighteenth and early nineteenth century saw major declines in deaths from smallpox, malaria and typhus and the beginnings of the long‐run increases in life expectancy. The period also saw urban areas become capable of demographic growth without a constant stream of migrants from the countryside: a necessary precondition for the global urbanization of the last two centuries and for modern economic growth. Since 1840 the highest national life expectancy globally has increased by three years in every decade.

中文翻译：

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介绍传染病、流行病的历史以及死亡率长期下降的早期阶段。

本文写于 COVID-19 流行期间，主要参考了英国历史，概述了传染病、流行病的长期历史以及自 1750 年以来预期寿命惊人的长期改善的早期阶段。这个故事本质上是一个乐观的故事。2019年，全球预期寿命接近73岁。1800 年大约是 30 岁。要了解这一转变的起源，我们必须看看历史顺序，随着时间的推移，许多过早死亡的原因被克服。在英国，这个故事开始的时间比人们通常想象的要早得多，发生在 1600 年左右。前两次“胜利”是战胜饥荒和瘟疫。然而，经济变化对死亡率产生了负面影响，这意味着尽管如此，预期寿命在十六世纪末至十八世纪中期要么下降，要么保持稳定。十八世纪末十九世纪初，天花、疟疾和斑疹伤寒造成的死亡人数大幅下降，预期寿命开始长期增长。这一时期，城市地区也能够在没有源源不断的农村移民的情况下实现人口增长：这是过去两个世纪全球城市化和现代经济增长的必要前提。自 1840 年以来，全球最高国民预期寿命每十年增加三年。