The aim of this study was to determine trajectories of depression in older adults and to identify predictors of membership in the different trajectory groups. A total of 3983 individuals aged 65 or older were included. Latent class growth models were used to identify trajectory groups. Of 3983 individuals, 2269 (57%) were females, with a mean baseline age of 72.4 years (SD = 6 years). Four depression trajectories were identified across 8 years of follow-up: “low-flat” (n = 3636; 86.6%), “low-to-middle” (n = 214; 9.2%), “low-to-high” (n = 31; 1.3%), and “high-stable” (n = 102; 2.9%). Compared to the low-flat depression group, high-stable depression group members were more likely to be female, have three or more chronic diseases, and were more likely not to own a home. Our findings will assist health policy decision-makers in planning intervention programs targeting those most likely to experience persistent depression in order to improve psychological well-being in the elderly.

本研究的目的是确定老年人抑郁的轨迹，并确定不同轨迹组成员身份的预测因素。总共包括 3983 名 65 岁或以上的人。潜在类别增长模型用于识别轨迹组。在 3983 人中，2269 人（57%）是女性，平均基线年龄为 72.4 岁（SD = 6 岁）。在 8 年的随访中确定了四种抑郁轨迹：“低平”（n = 3636；86.6%）、“中低”（n = 214；9.2%）、“低到高” ( n = 31; 1.3%) 和“高稳定”( n= 102; 2.9%）。与低平抑郁组相比，高稳定抑郁组成员更可能是女性，患有三种或更多慢性病，更可能没有房子。我们的研究结果将帮助卫生政策决策者规划针对最有可能经历持续抑郁症的人的干预计划，以改善老年人的心理健康。