OBJECTIVES Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assesses change using statistical analyses that can account for measurement error, and (c) examines the extent to which change on these intermediate measures predict reoffending. METHOD The current study examined the validity of an intermediate measure of risk to reoffend scored by community supervision officers (i.e., ACUTE-2007) in a large sample of men convicted of sexually motivated offenses (N = 632). RESULTS We found that risk to reoffend changes across time, the pattern of change varies across individuals, risk levels can predict different patterns of change, and that the best predictors of recidivism are the latest score or a rolling average of scores. CONCLUSIONS Community supervision can use recent information concerning the community adjustment of their clients to predict recidivism. Best practice includes updating assessments and adjusting supervision practices based on their clients' most recent assessment, or the average of previous assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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监测再次犯罪风险的变化：一项针对632名社区监督人员的前瞻性研究。

目标很少有研究检查个人在中间风险目标上有多少改变。很少有研究检查此类措施的变化在多大程度上预测了重新犯罪。要确定中间措施的有效性，需要采取多步骤方法，即（a）评估变更的可靠性；（b）使用可以考虑计量误差的统计分析评估变更；以及（c）检查这些中间措施的变更程度预测重新进攻。方法目前的研究检查了由社区监督官员对大量犯罪行为定罪的男性样本（N = 632）中由社区监督官员评分的再犯罪风险的中间度量的有效性。结果我们发现，随着时间的推移会再次冒犯变更的风险，变更模式因人而异，风险水平可以预测变化的不同模式，而累犯的最佳预测因子是最新分数或分数的滚动平均值。结论社区监管可以使用有关其客户的社区调整的最新信息来预测累犯。最佳实践包括更新评估，并根据客户的最新评估或先前评估的平均值调整监管措施。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。最佳实践包括更新评估，并根据客户的最新评估或先前评估的平均值调整监管措施。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。最佳实践包括更新评估，并根据客户的最新评估或先前评估的平均值调整监管措施。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。