This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts the overall survival (OS) of rectal neuroendocrine tumours (NETs). We retrospectively analysed 310 patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours in 5 hospitals in southern China. All of the patients were assigned to the training set. A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set, and a nomogram was constructed. It was validated on a dataset obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database of America (n = 547). In the training set, the nomogram exhibited improved discrimination power compared with the WHO grade guidelines (Herrell’s C-index, 0.872 vs 0.794; p < 0.001) and was also better than the seventh AJCC TNM classification (Herrell’s C-index, 0.872 vs 0.817; p < 0.001). In the SEER validation dataset, the discrimination was also excellent (C-index, 0.648 vs 0.583, p < 0.001 and 0.648 vs 0.603, p = 0.016, respectively, compared with G grade and TNM classification). Calibration of the nomogram predicted individual survival corresponding closely with the actual survival. We developed a nomogram predicting 1- and 3-year OS of patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility.

中文翻译：

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线型图可单独预测直肠神经内分泌肿瘤的总体生存率。

这项研究旨在开发一个诺模图，以预测直肠神经内分泌肿瘤（NETs）的总体生存期（OS）。我们回顾性分析了华南地区5家医院的310例直肠神经内分泌肿瘤患者。所有患者均被分配到训练组。使用训练集执行使用Cox比例风险回归的多变量分析，并构建列线图。在美国监测，流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库获得的数据集上进行了验证（n = 547）。在训练集中，列线图显示出比WHO等级指南更高的辨别力（Herrell的C指数，0.872 vs. 0.794； p <0.001），也优于第七次AJCC TNM分类（Herrell的C指数，0.872 vs 0.817）。 ; p <0.001）。在SEER验证数据集中，与G级和TNM分类相比，辨别力也很出色（C指数分别为0.648和0.583，p <0.001和0.648对0.603，p = 0.016）。诺模图的校准预测了与实际生存密切相关的个体生存。我们开发了预测直肠神经内分泌肿瘤患者1年和3年OS的列线图。验证显示出出色的辨别力和校准能力，表明其良好的临床实用性。