In the expressway reconstruction and expansion engineering, the form of rightward zone is increasingly adopted, and its complicated traffic conditions can easily cause traffic accidents. In order to quickly and effectively grasp the traffic risk of the right diversion section, this study employs average speed, the coefficient of variation, the equivalent minimum safety distance, and the deceleration as evaluation indexes of driving risk, and then analyses the influence rules of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section on each evaluation index by using Vissim simulation software. On the basis of this, we determine the weight of each evaluation index by the entropy method and establish the driving risk index evaluation model of the work zone with multiple linear regression. The results show that the partial regression coefficients of traffic volume, the proportion of large vehicles, and the length of the transition section to the driving risk index are 0.059, 0.317, and 0.15, respectively. Finally, in this paper, we analyze the traffic risk of example section based on the driving risk evaluation model. The results of evaluation are consistent with the number of measured conflicts. This study proposes a new method for predicting the traffic risk of the expressway reconstruction and extension engineering, which can provide a reference for the development of safety management measures in the rightward zone.

中文翻译：

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高速公路改扩建工程右区行驶风险分析与评价

在高速公路改扩建工程中，越来越多地采用向右带的形式，其复杂的交通条件容易造成交通事故。为了快速有效地掌握右转路段的交通风险，本研究采用平均速度，变化系数，等效最小安全距离和减速度作为驾驶风险的评价指标，然后分析了影响因素。通过使用Vissim仿真软件，每个评估指标上的交通量，大型车辆的比例以及过渡段的长度。在此基础上，通过熵值法确定各评价指标的权重，建立具有多元线性回归的工作区驾驶风险指标评价模型。结果表明，交通量，大型车辆的比例和过渡段的长度对驾驶风险指数的偏回归系数分别为0.059、0.317和0.15。最后，本文基于驾驶风险评估模型对示例路段的交通风险进行了分析。评估结果与测得的冲突数量一致。本研究提出了一种预测高速公路改扩建工程交通风险的新方法，可为制定右区安全管理措施提供参考。我们基于驾驶风险评估模型对示例路段的交通风险进行了分析。评估结果与测得的冲突数量一致。本研究提出了一种预测高速公路改扩建工程交通风险的新方法，可为制定右区安全管理措施提供参考。我们基于驾驶风险评估模型对示例路段的交通风险进行了分析。评估结果与测得的冲突数量一致。本研究提出了一种预测高速公路改扩建工程交通风险的新方法，可为制定右区安全管理措施提供参考。