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Solar Cycles in Salvage Logging: National Data from the Czech Republic Confirm Significant Correlation
Forests ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-08 , DOI: 10.3390/f11090973
Václav Šimůnek , Zdeněk Vacek , Stanislav Vacek

Forest ecosystems in Europe undergo cyclic fluctuations with alternating periods of forest prosperity and disturbances. Forest disturbances are caused by large-scale calamities (climate-induced and unforeseen events) resulting in an increased volume of salvage logging. In recent decades, climate change (warming, long-term droughts, more frequent storms, bark beetle outbreaks) has contributed to an increased frequency of salvage logging. However, until now, it has not been revealed what triggers national-scale forest calamities. All of the above-mentioned natural disturbances are connected to solar activity, which is the driver of climate change. This research relates the total volume of harvested timber and salvage logging to the climate and cosmic factors in the Czech Republic, Central Europe. Data of total and salvage logging are compared with air temperatures, precipitation, extreme climatic events, sunspot areas, and cosmic ray intensities. The results document a significant effect of average annual temperatures on the total and salvage logging for the entire period of observations since 1961. A significant correlation of salvage logging to the sunspot area and cosmic ray intensity was observed. The link between salvage logging and sunspots and cosmic ray intensity is supported by spectral analysis in which a significant 11-year cycle was observed since 1973. The results also show an increasing significant effect of sunspots and cosmic ray intensity on logging in recent years in connection with synergism of extreme climate events and the subsequent bark beetle outbreaks. Space and cosmic effects are factors that substantially influence forest ecosystems. Therefore, this paper provides new knowledge about, and possible predictions of, the forest response under climate change.

中文翻译:

打捞测井中的太阳周期:捷克共和国的国家数据证实了显着的相关性

欧洲的森林生态系统会经历周期性的波动,并伴随着森林的繁荣和干扰。森林灾害是由大规模灾害(气候引起的和不可预见的事件)引起的,导致打捞砍伐的数量增加。在最近的几十年中,气候变化(温暖,长期干旱,更频繁的风暴,树皮甲虫暴发)导致了打捞伐木的频率增加。但是,直到现在,还没有发现引发全国范围森林灾害的原因。所有上述自然干扰都与太阳活动有关,而太阳活动是气候变化的驱动力。这项研究将采伐的木材和打捞的木材总量与中欧捷克共和国的气候和宇宙因素联系起来。将总和打捞测井的数据与气温,降水,极端气候事件,黑子面积和宇宙射线强度进行比较。结果表明,自1961年以来,整个观测期间的年平均温度对总采伐量和救捞测井有显着影响。观测到的救助采伐与黑子面积和宇宙射线强度之间存在显着相关性。光谱分析支持打捞测井和黑子与宇宙射线强度之间的联系,自1973年以来,观测到了11年的重要周期。结果还表明,近年来,黑点和宇宙射线强度对伐木的影响越来越大与极端气候事件和随后的树皮甲虫暴发的协同作用。空间和宇宙效应是严重影响森林生态系统的因素。因此,本文提供了有关气候变化下森林反应的新知识以及可能的预测。
更新日期:2020-09-08
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