The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is the most commonly used method for predicting spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, large uncertainties are always associated with the calculation of Coulomb stress change. The uncertainties mainly arise due to nonunique slip inversions and unknown receiver faults; especially for the latter, results are highly dependent on the choice of the assumed receiver mechanism. Based on binary tests (aftershocks yes/no), recent studies suggest that alternative stress quantities, a distance‐slip probabilistic model as well as deep neural network (DNN) approaches, all are superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanism. To challenge this conclusion, which might have large implications, we use 289 slip inversions from SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered half‐space and variable receiver mechanisms. We also analyze the effect of the magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration to verify the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the ranking of stress metrics. The observations suggest that introducing a layered half‐space does not improve the stress maps and ROC curves. However, results significantly improve for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods but without changing the ranking. We also go beyond binary testing and apply alternative statistics to test the ability to estimate aftershock numbers, which confirm that simple stress metrics perform better than the classic Coulomb failure stress calculations and are also better than the distance‐slip probabilistic model.

中文翻译：

---

库仑应力是余震预报的最佳选择吗？

库仑破坏应力（CFS）准则是预测大地震后余震空间分布的最常用方法。但是，库仑应力变化的计算始终伴随着很大的不确定性。不确定性主要是由于非唯一滑动反转和未知的接收器故障引起的。特别是对于后者，结果高度依赖于假定的接收器机制的选择。基于二进制测试（余震是/否），最近的研究表明，替代应力量，距离滑移概率模型以及深度神经网络（DNN）方法，均优于具有预定义接收器机制的CFS。为了挑战这一结论，这可能会产生重大影响，我们使用SRCMOD数据库中的289条滑动反演来计算分层半空间和可变接收器机制的更实际的CFS值。我们还分析了幅度截止，网格大小变化和余震持续时间的影响，以验证使用接收器工作特征（ROC）分析来对压力指标进行排名。观察结果表明，引入分层半空间不会改善应力图和ROC曲线。但是，对于较大的余震和较短的时间段，结果会显着改善，但不会更改排名。我们还超越了二进制测试，并应用替代统计信息来测试估计余震次数的能力，