This study supplements spatial panel econometrics techniques with qualitative GIS to analyse spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of integrated conservation–development projects relative to poaching activity and unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. Cluster and spatial regression analyses were performed on data from ranger monitoring containing > 35,000 combined observations of illegal activities in Volcanoes National Park, against tourism revenue sharing and conservation NGO funding data for 2006–2015. Results were enriched with qualitative GIS analysis from key informant interviews. We found a statistically significant negative linear effect of overall integrated conservation–development investments on unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park. However, individually, funding from Rwanda's tourism revenue sharing policy did not have an effect in contrast to the significant negative effect of conservation NGO funding. In another contrast between NGO funding and tourism revenue sharing funding, spatial analysis revealed significant gaps in revenue sharing funding relative to the hotspots of illegal activities, but these gaps were not present for NGO funding. Insight from qualitative GIS analysis suggests that incongruity in prioritization by decision makers at least partly explains the differences between the effects of revenue sharing and conservation NGO investment. Although the overall results are encouraging for integrated conservation–development projects, we recommend increased spatial alignment of project funding with clusters of illegal activities, which can make investment decision-making more data-driven and projects more effective for conservation.

中文翻译：

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综合保护-发展项目对卢旺达火山国家公园未经授权的资源使用的影响：一种混合方法的时空方法

本研究通过定性 GIS 补充了空间面板计量经济学技术，以分析与卢旺达火山国家公园的偷猎活动和未经授权的资源使用相关的综合保护-发展项目分布的时空变化。对包含超过 35,000 次火山国家公园非法活动综合观察的护林员监测数据进行聚类和空间回归分析，与 2006-2015 年旅游收入分享和保护非政府组织资助数据进行对比。来自关键知情人访谈的定性 GIS 分析丰富了结果。我们发现整体综合保护-发展投资对火山国家公园未经授权的资源使用具有统计上显着的负线性影响。然而，单独地，来自卢旺达的资金' 与保护非政府组织资助的显着负面影响相比，旅游收入分享政策没有产生影响。在 NGO 资助和旅游收益分享资助之间的另一个对比中，空间分析显示收益分享资助相对于非法活动热点存在显着差距，但这些差距在 NGO 资助中不存在。来自定性 GIS 分析的见解表明，决策者优先排序的不一致至少部分地解释了收入分享和保护 NGO 投资之间的差异。尽管综合保护-发展项目的总体结果令人鼓舞，但我们建议增加项目资金与非法活动集群的空间一致性，