The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on a mangrove island ecosystem was investigated by projecting future increase in tidal inundation at the island. The aims of this study is to simulate the potential mangrove response under several conditions of SLR scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. Processed WordView-2 and IFSAR images were used in the analysis. Segmentation and classification process were conducted using SPRING 5.2 software while inundation was simulated using ArcGIS 9.3. A series of mangrove migration map for 2050 and 2100 SLR scenarios showed an adjustment to tidal inundation classification due to the increased seawater level. Mangroves from the higher zone (Z4) migrated into the lower zone (Z2 and Z3) as a response to SLR. In the worst-case scenario, more than 25% of the mangrove forest is predicted to be permanently submerged due to a 1.3 m sea level rise. The total land loss in the year 2100 was estimated at 73.52ha (Case study 1) and 148.92ha (Case study 2). The worst-case scenarios will possibly lead to the extinction of Xylocarpus moluccensis when Z4 starts to be completely inundated during the 2050 SLR projection. In conclusion, the findings showed that the tolerance to seawater inundation of different mangrove species determines its responses and migration pattern.

通过预测该岛未来的潮汐淹没增加量，研究了海平面上升（SLR）对红树林岛屿生态系统的影响。本研究的目的是模拟2050年和2100年SLR情景在几种条件下的潜在红树林响应。分析中使用了处理过的WordView-2和IFSAR图像。使用SPRING 5.2软件进行了分割和分类过程，而使用ArcGIS 9.3模拟了淹没过程。一系列针对2050年和2100年SLR情景的红树林迁移图显示，由于海水水位上升，潮汐淹没分类有所调整。作为对SLR的响应，较高的区域（Z4）中的红树林迁移到较低的区域（Z2和Z3）中。在最坏的情况下，预计会有超过25％的红树林被永久淹没。海平面上升3 m。2100年的总土地损失估计为73.52公顷（案例研究1）和148.92公顷（案例研究2）。最坏的情况可能会导致灭绝当Z4开始在2050年的SLR投影中完全淹没时，木香木霉。总之，研究结果表明，不同红树林对海水淹没的耐受性决定了其响应和迁移模式。