We explore future changes of temperature, precipitation, and drought characteristics in the Indochina Region (ICR) based on the optimal ensemble subset of global climate models (GCMs) of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The optimal ensemble subset is selected from 34 GCMs using an ensemble selection method by focusing on precipitation over ICR. Bias correction procedures for the optimal ensemble subset are examined for drought analysis in ICR. Based on the bias-corrected optimal ensemble subset, mean temperature in ICR is projected to increase around 1.1 °C (0.99 °C) in near future (2011–2040), 2.5 °C (1.8 °C) in mid future (2041–2070), and 4.3 °C (2.2 °C) in far future (2071–2100) time frames under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (RCP4.5) scenario. Mean precipitation decreases in the dry season and increases in the wet season. The 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) projects larger changes of drought characteristics than those of the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), especially quite large increases of drought duration, severity, and peak. Based on SPEI-3, the potential increase of severe drought hazard is expected in ICR in the far future period under both scenarios. The most drought-prone areas are detected over Thailand and Cambodia in which the drought characteristics are projected to expand to cover most parts of ICR in the mid and far future. The potentially dry condition over ICR is clearly depicted based on SPEI-3 with more reliable estimation after selecting the optimal ensemble subset and bias correction procedure.

中文翻译：

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基于CMIP5模型最优集合子集的印度支那地区干旱预测

我们基于耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的全球气候模型 (GCM) 的最佳集合子集，探索印度支那地区 (ICR) 未来温度、降水和干旱特征的变化。最佳集合子集是使用集合选择方法从 34 个 GCM 中选择的，重点是 ICR 上的降水。在 ICR 中检查了最佳集合子集的偏差校正程序以进行干旱分析。基于偏差校正的最优集合子集，ICR 的平均温度预计在不久的将来（2011-2040 年）增加约 1.1°C（0.99°C），在中期（2041-2041-）增加 2.5°C（1.8°C） 2070)，以及在代表性浓度路径 8.5 (RCP8.5) (RCP4.5) 情景下的远未来 (2071-2100) 时间范围内为 4.3 °C (2.2 °C)。平均降水量在旱季减少，雨季增加。3 个月标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI-3）比 3 个月标准化降水指数（SPI-3）预测干旱特征的变化更大，尤其是干旱持续时间、严重程度和峰值的增加相当大。基于SPEI-3，在两种情景下，ICR预计在很远的未来时期严重干旱灾害的潜在增加。在泰国和柬埔寨发现了最容易发生干旱的地区，预计在中远期，干旱特征将扩大到 ICR 的大部分地区。在选择最佳集合子集和偏差校正程序后，基于 SPEI-3 以更可靠的估计清楚地描述了 ICR 上的潜在干燥条件。