Extreme weather increases the risk of large-scale crop failure. The mechanisms involved are complex and intertwined, hence undermining the identification of simple adaptation levers to help improve the resilience of agricultural production. Based on more than 82 000 yield data reported at the regional level in 17 European countries, we assess how climate affected the yields of nine crop species. Using machine learning models, we analyzed historical yield data since 1901 and then focus on 2018, which has experienced a multiplicity and a diversity of atypical extreme climatic conditions. Machine learning models explain up to 65% of historical yield anomalies. We find that both extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with negative yield anomalies, but with varying impacts in different parts of Europe. In 2018, Northern and Eastern Europe experienced multiple and simultaneous crop failures—among the highest observed in recent decades. These yield losses were associated with extremely low rainfalls in combination with high temperatures between March and August 2018. However, the higher than usual yields recorded in Southern Europe—caused by favourable spring rainfall conditions—nearly offset the large decrease in Northern European crop production. Our results outline the importance of considering single and compound climate extremes to analyse the causes of yield losses in Europe. We found no clear upward or downward trend in the frequency of extreme yield losses for any of the considered crops between 1990 and 2018.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

极端天气增加了大规模农作物歉收的风险。所涉及的机制复杂且相互交织，因此破坏了确定简单的适应杠杆以帮助提高农业生产的弹性。根据 17 个欧洲国家区域层面报告的 82,000 多个产量数据，我们评估了气候如何影响九种作物的产量。我们使用机器学习模型分析了 1901 年以来的历史产量数据，然后重点关注 2018 年，该年经历了多种非典型极端气候条件。机器学习模型可以解释高达 65% 的历史产量异常现象。我们发现，极端温度和降水都与负产量异常相关，但对欧洲不同地区的影响各不相同。 2018 年，北欧和东欧同时发生了多次农作物歉收，这是近几十年来最严重的一次。这些产量损失与 2018 年 3 月至 8 月期间极低的降雨量和高温有关。然而，由于有利的春季降雨条件，南欧的单产高于正常水平，几乎抵消了北欧作物产量的大幅下降。我们的结果概述了考虑单一和复合极端气候来分析欧洲产量损失原因的重要性。我们发现 1990 年至 2018 年间任何考虑的作物的极端产量损失频率没有明显的上升或下降趋势。

本文是“2018 年欧洲严重干旱和热浪的影响：从地点到大陆规模”主题的一部分。