Excess agricultural nitrogen (N) in the environment is a persistent problem in the United States and other regions of the world, contributing to water and air pollution, as well as to climate change. Efforts to reduce N from agricultural sources largely rely on voluntary efforts by farmers to reduce inputs and improve uptake by crops. However, research has failed to comprehensively depict farmers' N decision-making processes, particularly when engaging with uncertainty. Through analysis of in-depth interviews with US corn (Zea mays L.) growers, this study reveals how farmers experience and process numerous uncertainties associated with N management, such as weather variability, crop and input price volatility, lack of knowledge about biophysical systems, and the possibility of underapplying or overapplying. Farmers used one of two general decision-making management strategies to address these uncertainties: heuristic-based or data-intensive decision-making. Heuristic-based decision-making involves minimizing sources of uncertainty and reliance on heuristics and personal previous experiences, while data-intensive decision-making is the increased use of field- and farm-scale data collection and management, as well as increased management effort within a given growing season.

中文翻译：

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复杂和不确定世界中的农业决策：中西部玉米农业的氮管理

环境中过量的农业氮 (N) 在美国和世界其他地区是一个长期存在的问题，导致水和空气污染以及气候变化。减少农业来源氮的努力很大程度上依赖于农民自愿减少投入和提高作物吸收的努力。然而，研究未能全面描述农民的 N 决策过程，尤其是在处理不确定性时。通过对美国玉米（Zea mays L.）种植者的深入访谈分析，本研究揭示了农民如何经历和处理与氮管理相关的众多不确定性，例如天气变化、作物和投入价格波动、缺乏对生物物理系统的了解，以及应用不足或过度应用的可能性。农民使用两种一般决策管理策略之一来解决这些不确定性：基于启发式或数据密集型的决策。基于启发式的决策涉及最大限度地减少不确定性来源以及对启发式和个人以往经验的依赖，而数据密集型决策则是更多地使用田间和农场规模的数据收集和管理，以及增加内部管理工作。给定的生长季节。