Conversion of grassland to cropland in the US Prairie Pothole Region is of longstanding concern. The region's grasslands are carbon (C) sinks and provide important breeding grounds for many migratory bird species. Crop production requires more input use, potentially increasing pollution in the greater Mississippi watershed. Previous analyses of land conversion in the Prairie Pothole Region generally invoke neoclassical economic models and typically use secondary data to assess conversion decisions. To more deeply investigate farmers' land use choices, we use data from focus group meetings to learn about their conversion decisions, conversion costs, and motives. Farmers mentioned profit-related factors frequently as a factor in their land use decisions. However, our respondents who converted to cropland report conversion costs to be well below estimated increases in land value. This suggests that those who choose not to convert land forego such gains, and thus financial motivations may be far from complete in explaining land conversion decisions. We found several quantitative indications that other factors might be crucial in preventing more grassland losses: (1) for those who converted from grass to crop, the gain in returns is so large that conversion costs could be recovered in one year; (2) for those who converted from crop to grass, the gain was negative; and (3) lifestyle choices and stewardship opinions were found to be statistically significant in land use decisions. Thus, nonmarket factors, including lifestyle choice and stewardship perspectives, may be important determinants of land use decisions and act to slow the rate of conversion to cropping.

中文翻译：

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经济回报在土地利用变化中的作用：来自美国北部大平原农场层面数据的证据

在美国草原坑洼地区，将草地转变为农田一直是人们关注的问题。该地区的草原是碳（C）汇，为许多候鸟物种提供重要的繁殖地。作物生产需要更多的投入使用，这可能会增加大密西西比流域的污染。先前对草原坑洼地区土地转化的分析通常援引新古典经济模型，并通常使用二手数据来评估转化决策。为了更深入地调查农民的土地使用选择，我们使用焦点小组会议的数据来了解他们的转换决策、转换成本和动机。农民经常提到与利润相关的因素是他们土地使用决策的一个因素。然而，我们转换为农田的受访者报告转换成本远低于估计的土地价值增长。这表明那些选择不转换土地的人放弃了这些收益，因此在解释土地转换决定方面，财务动机可能远非完整。我们发现了一些量化迹象，表明其他因素可能对防止更多的草原损失至关重要：（1）对于那些从草地转为作物的人来说，回报的收益非常大，一年内可以收回转换成本；（2）从庄稼到草的，收益是负的；(3) 生活方式选择和管理意见在土地使用决策中具有统计学意义。因此，非市场因素，包括生活方式选择和管理观点，