As climate change is unlikely to follow a linear path, climate policies should anticipate varied outcomes and be flexibly responsive. The case for such “robust policy” is compelling. However, advocates of robust approaches to policymaking often understate the challenge, as the variability of climate is just one of at least three interactive arenas of uncertainty that require attention. Emerging technologies will have a significant but indeterminate impact on climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Uncertainty is also heightened because politics is an arena of disruptive change. The development of robust climate policy given the convergence of unknowns in the climatic, technological, and political realms entails three components: (1) diverse, distributed, and transparent participation; (2) safe-to-fail experimentation; and (3) exploratory foresight.

中文翻译：

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将政治和技术不确定性纳入强有力的气候政策


由于气候变化不太可能遵循线性路径，气候政策应预见到不同的结果并灵活应对。这种“强有力的政策”的理由是令人信服的。然而，强有力的政策制定方法的倡导者往往低估了这一挑战，因为气候变化只是至少三个需要关注的不确定性互动领域之一。新兴技术将对气候适应和减缓努力产生重大但不确定的影响。由于政治是颠覆性变革的舞台，不确定性也加剧了。鉴于气候、技术和政治领域未知因素的融合，制定强有力的气候政策需要三个组成部分：（1）多样化、分布式和透明的参与； (2) 安全到失败的实验； (3)探索性的预见性。