Most climate models for the Caribbean predict drying trends, increased temperature, and precipitation variability. We used regression analyses to evaluate how global predictions translated into local temporal patterns of climatic variation within the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, and which variables were more useful for expressing precipitation and temperature variability trends there. We used cross-correlation analyses to evaluate how local precipitation and temperature data related to regional atmosphere-ocean teleconnections indices (ENSO, NAO, TNA, and AMO). Contrary to regional climate predictions, we found an increase in mean annual precipitation during the dry season, and no trends in annual and wet season precipitation data sets were observed. Precipitation variance increased after 1995, but only when considering dry season data, which showed a decrease in the total number and consecutive days without rain after 1995. In agreement with regional predictions, maximum and minimum annual mean temperatures increased between 1975 and 2015. We found strong positive associations between maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution (i.e. more wet days, less dry intervals). Precipitation and temperature were more strongly associated to changes in the Tropical Atlantic than to changes in the North Atlantic or the Eastern Pacific. Our downscaling analysis (one station data) shows the relevance of evaluating global climate predictions in specific areas where landscape features can modify the patterns observed at bigger scales. The combination of downscaling analysis and the inclusion of long-term climate trends can facilitate the development of better future scenarios of climate variability and evaluate their importance to local forest ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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卢基洛山脉的长期温度和降水趋势及其与气候变化预测中使用的全球大气指数的关系

加勒比海地区的大多数气候模型都可以预测干燥趋势，温度升高和降水变化。我们使用回归分析来评估全球预测如何转化为波多黎各卢奎洛山脉内的气候变化的局部时间模式，以及哪些变量对于表达那里的降水和温度变化趋势更有用。我们使用互相关分析来评估本地降水和温度数据与区域大气-海洋遥相关指数（ENSO，NAO，TNA和AMO）的关系。与区域气候预测相反，我们发现干旱季节的年平均降水量有所增加，而没有观测到年度和雨季降水数据集的趋势。1995年以后，降水变化有所增加，但只有考虑旱季数据时，这表明1995年之后无雨总次数和连续天数减少。与区域预测一致，在1975年至2015年之间，年平均最高和最低温度升高。我们发现最高和最低温度与降雨分布之间存在强的正相关关系（即更多潮湿的日子，较少的干燥间隔）。与北大西洋或东太平洋的变化相比，降水和温度与热带大西洋的变化关系更大。我们的降尺度分析（一个站点的数据）显示了在特定区域评估全球气候预测的相关性，在这些区域中，景观特征可以改变更大尺度上观测到的格局。