The Great Barrier Reef is an iconic ecosystem, known globally for its rich marine biodiversity that includes many thousands of tropical breeding seabirds. Despite indications of localised declines in some seabird species from as early as the mid-1990s, trends in seabird populations across the Reef have never been quantified. With a long history of human impact and ongoing environmental change, seabirds are likely sentinels in this important ecosystem. Using four decades of monitoring data, we estimated site-specific trends for nine seabird species from 32 islands and cays across the Reef. Trends varied markedly among species and sites, but probable declines occurred at 45% of the 86 species-by-site combinations analysed compared to increases at 14%. For five species we combined site-specific trends into a multi-site trend in scaled abundance, which revealed probable declines of common noddy (Anous stolidus), sooty tern (Onychoprion fuscatus), and masked booby (Sula dactylatra), but no long-term changes in the two most widely distributed species, greater crested tern (Thalasseus bergii) and brown booby (Sula leucogaster). For brown booby, long-term stability largely resulted from increases at a single large colony on East Fairfax Island that offset declines at a majority of other sites. While growth of the brown booby population at East Fairfax points to the likely success of habitat restoration on the island, it also highlights a general vulnerability wherein large numbers of some species are concentrated at a small number of key sites. Identifying drivers of variation in population change across species and sites while ensuring long-term protection of key sites will be essential to securing the future of seabirds on the Reef. Article impact statement: Four decades of monitoring reveals troubling trends for seabird breeding populations across the Great Barrier Reef. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译：

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大堡礁海鸟繁殖种群的趋势

大堡礁是一个标志性的生态系统，以其丰富的海洋生物多样性而闻名于世，其中包括数千只热带繁殖海鸟。尽管早在 1990 年代中期就有迹象表明某些海鸟物种局部减少，但从未对整个大堡礁的海鸟种群趋势进行量化。由于人类影响的悠久历史和持续的环境变化，海鸟很可能是这个重要生态系统中的哨兵。使用四个十年的监测数据，我们估计了来自整个大堡礁 32 个岛屿和珊瑚礁的 9 种海鸟物种的特定地点趋势。物种和地点之间的趋势显着不同，但在分析的 86 个物种-地点组合中，有 45% 的可能下降，而增加 14%。对于五个物种，我们将特定地点的趋势结合成比例丰度的多地点趋势，这揭示了普通鸬鹚（Anous stolidus）、黑燕鸥（Onychoprion fuscatus）和蒙面鲣鸟（Sula dactylatra）的数量可能下降，但两种分布最广的物种，大凤头燕鸥（Thalasseus bergii）和棕色燕鸥没有长期变化笨蛋（Sula leucogaster）。对于棕色鲣鸟，长期稳定主要是由于东费尔法克斯岛一个大型殖民地的增加抵消了大多数其他地点的下降。虽然东费尔法克斯棕色鲣鸟种群的增长表明岛上栖息地恢复可能取得成功，但它也凸显了普遍的脆弱性，其中大量的某些物种集中在少数关键地点。确定不同物种和地点的种群变化变化的驱动因素，同时确保关键地点的长期保护对于确保珊瑚礁上海鸟的未来至关重要。文章影响声明：四年的监测揭示了大堡礁海鸟繁殖种群的令人不安的趋势。本文受版权保护。版权所有。