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Assessment of climate change impact on maize yield and yield attributes under different climate change scenarios in eastern India
Ecological Indicators ( IF 7.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106881
R.K. Srivastava , R.K. Panda , Arun Chakraborty

Global climate change can harm the food production globally by varying intensity and frequency of rainfall, occurrence of extreme weather and increment in greenhouse gases. Increased occurrence of extreme climate events results in greater variability of agricultural production. In this study, the climate change impact evaluation was done by using CERES-maize model for maize yield and yield attributes for the projected time periods 2021–2050, and 2051–2080 by using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 respectively for eastern India, and the projected results were compared with the baseline scenario of 1982–2012. On comparison with the baseline (1982–2012) results, the change in yield recorded was −10.58%, −14.80%, −21.02%, and −23.39% respectively for the time slice 2021–2050, and −15.20%, −18.54%, −24.75%, and −26.83% respectively for the time slice 2051–2080 for irrigated condition. But, in rainfed condition, the change in yield recorded was higher of 10.55%, 9.20%, 8.13%, and 7.47% respectively with the time slice 2021–2050, while 10.63%, 6.65%, 7.47%, and 4.31% for the time slice 2051–2080. Study indicates the loss of grain yield is more for time period of 2051–2080 rather than the time period 2021–2050 under irrigated condition in comparison to the baseline yield, while in rainfed condition, the grain yield increased in both the time periods 2021–2050, and 2051–2080 which indicates that the increase in rainfall reduced the negative impact of temperature on the crop yield.



中文翻译:

印度东部不同气候变化情景下气候变化对玉米产量和产量属性的影响评估

全球气候变化可通过改变降雨强度和频率,发生极端天气和增加温室气体来损害全球粮食生产。极端气候事件发生的增加导致农业生产的更大变化。在这项研究中,气候变化影响评估是通过使用CERES-maize模型对2021-2050年和2051-2080年预测时期的玉米产量和产量属性进行的,并使用了不同的代表浓度路径(RCP)2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5 W / m 2分别针对印度东部,并将预测结果与1982–2012年的基准情景进行了比较。与基线(1982-2012年)的结果进行比较,在2021-2050年的时间段记录的产量变化分别为-10.58%,-14.80%,-21.02%和-23.39%,以及-15.20%,-18.54对于灌溉条件,时间片2051-2080分别为%,-24.75%和-26.83%。但是,在雨育条件下,记录的单产变化在2021年至2050年之间分别更高,分别为10.55%,9.20%,8.13%和7.47%,而在2021-2050年之间,分别为10.63%,6.65%,7.47%和4.31%。时间片2051–2080。研究表明,与基线单产相比,灌溉条件下2051-2080年的谷物产量损失要比灌溉条件下2021-2050年的损失更多,而在雨养条件下,

更新日期:2020-09-05
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