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The triple complexity of drought risk analysis and its visualisation via mapping: a review across scales and sectors
Earth-Science Reviews ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103345
Veit Blauhut

Abstract Drought risk quantifies the likelihood of environmental and socio-economic systems to suffer negative consequences due to drought. The analysis of drought risk is understood as the initial step to foster drought risk management at different scales and thematic foci. To communicate drought risk to stakeholders, a visualisation via risk maps is of preferable usage. Even though drought risk has been subject to investigations worldwide, a systematic review of current drought risk mapping practice is lacking. This work reviews recent practices of drought risk analysis with the aim of detangling issues of scale and focus of application, applied data, approaches to analyse risk, and drought risk mapping as generic visualisation technique. The review highlights a general lack of national and regional studies, especially in Central America as well as northern and south-eastern Asia. A majority of studies focuses specific topics, especially agriculture, but also general drought risk analyses are popular. From a methodological point of view, drought risk is based on different kinds of information: hazard, vulnerability and impact information; and combined in statistical or conceptual models. Hereby, a lack of statistical evidence for predictor selection as well as of verification of final results became evident. The majority of studies bases analysis on predictors on expert knowledge, whereas a proven suitability of the predictor to analyse the asset at risk remains questionable. The analysis of existing studies suggests that there is only little agreement on what a drought risk analysis entails. The variety of research aims and thematic foci results in a wide spectrum of drought hazard predictors and vulnerability factors applied as well as ways to analyse drought risk. Nevertheless, common paradigms of data application and combination practice were identified and resulted in the overall recommendation on considering the components of hazard predictors, vulnerability and impact information in the frame of a statistical model. Moreover, information on common practice of applied methodological approaches and data with regard to the location, spatial resolution and thematic focus of the study is provided. Furthermore, efforts to map drought risk differ widely with respect to purpose, intelligibility, and implementation details such as categorical visualisation. In order to increase intelligibility of prospective drought risk maps, basic standards have been recommended.

中文翻译:

干旱风险分析的三重复杂性及其通过绘图实现的可视化:跨尺度和部门审查

摘要 干旱风险量化了环境和社会经济系统因干旱而遭受负面影响的可能性。干旱风险分析被理解为在不同尺度和主题焦点上促进干旱风险管理的第一步。为了向利益相关者传达干旱风险,最好使用通过风险地图进行可视化。尽管干旱风险已在世界范围内接受调查,但缺乏对当前干旱风险绘图实践的系统审查。这项工作回顾了干旱风险分析的最新实践,目的是解决应用的规模和重点、应用数据、分析风险的方法以及作为通用可视化技术的干旱风险绘图等问题。审查强调普遍缺乏国家和区域研究,特别是在中美洲以及北亚和东南亚。大多数研究侧重于特定主题,尤其是农业,但一般干旱风险分析也很受欢迎。从方法论的角度来看,干旱风险基于不同类型的信息:灾害、脆弱性和影响信息;并结合在统计或概念模型中。因此,明显缺乏预测变量选择和最终结果验证的统计证据。大多数研究基于专家知识对预测变量进行分析,而预测变量是否适合分析处于风险中的资产仍然值得怀疑。对现有研究的分析表明,对于干旱风险分析的内容几乎没有达成一致。各种研究目标和主题焦点导致了广泛的干旱灾害预测因子和脆弱性因素的应用以及分析干旱风险的方法。尽管如此,确定了数据应用和组合实践的通用范式,并产生了关于在统计模型框架内考虑灾害预测因子、脆弱性和影响信息的组成部分的总体建议。此外,还提供了有关研究的位置、空间分辨率和专题重点方面的应用方法论和数据的普遍做法的信息。此外,绘制干旱风险图的努力在目的、可理解性和实施细节(如分类可视化)方面存在很大差异。为了提高预期干旱风险图的可理解性,
更新日期:2020-11-01
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