当前位置: X-MOL 学术Hortic. Environ. Biotechnol. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Model based on temperature parameters predicts optimal harvest date for ‘Whasan’ Asian pear
Horticulture, Environment, and Biotechnology ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s13580-020-00270-6
Ho-Jin Seo , Po-An Chen , Janghoon Song

The optimal harvest date for ‘Whasan’ pears (Pyrus pyrifolia ‘Whasan’), which is difficult to predict, is currently determined on the basis of field observations of fruit quality. To create better models for predicting pear maturation, we utilized flowering period data from the Pear Research Institute, South Korea; commercial harvest data; and daily meteorological information from 2007 to 2011 to assess five temperature-related parameters for inclusion in the models: (1) daily mean temperature; (2) daily maximum temperature; (3) daily minimum temperature; (4) average of the daily mean temperature and daily maximum temperature; and (5) average of the daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily minimum temperature. We used these parameters and the minimum coefficient of variation method to estimate the base temperature and construct five temperature-based models for predicting harvest date. Data from 2015 to 2016 were used to evaluate the performance of these models, as assessed by average absolute deviation, average squared error, and average absolute percentage error. Using the average of the daily mean and maximum temperatures as the variable input temperature and 9.4 °C as the base temperature, we obtained the most accurate prediction of the optimal pear harvest date. Our model indicates that the optimal harvest date for ‘Whasan’ pear occurs at 2370 accumulated growing-degree days after full bloom.

中文翻译:

基于温度参数的模型预测“Whasan”亚洲梨的最佳收获日期

'Whasan' 梨(Pyrus pyrifolia 'Whasan')的最佳收获日期难以预测,目前是根据果实品质的实地观察确定的。为了创建更好的模型来预测梨的成熟度,我们利用了韩国梨研究所的开花期数据;商业收获数据;和 2007 年至 2011 年的每日气象信息,以评估包含在模型中的五个与温度相关的参数:(1) 日平均温度;(2) 日最高气温;(3) 日最低气温;(4) 日平均气温和日最高气温的平均值;(5)日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温的平均值。我们使用这些参数和最小变异系数方法来估计基础温度并构建五个基于温度的模型来预测收获日期。2015 年至 2016 年的数据用于评估这些模型的性能,通过平均绝对偏差、平均平方误差和平均绝对百分比误差进行评估。以日平均和最高气温的平均值为变量输入温度,9.4℃为基准温度,我们得到了梨最佳采收期的最准确预测。我们的模型表明,'Whasan' 梨的最佳收获日期发生在盛开后 2370 个累积生长期天数。通过平均绝对偏差、平均平方误差和平均绝对百分比误差进行评估。以日平均和最高气温的平均值为变量输入温度,9.4℃为基准温度,我们得到了梨最佳采收期的最准确预测。我们的模型表明,'Whasan' 梨的最佳收获日期出现在盛开后 2370 个累积生长期天数。通过平均绝对偏差、平均平方误差和平均绝对百分比误差进行评估。以日平均和最高气温的平均值为变量输入温度,9.4℃为基准温度,我们得到了梨最佳采收期的最准确预测。我们的模型表明,'Whasan' 梨的最佳收获日期发生在盛开后 2370 个累积生长期天数。
更新日期:2020-09-04
down
wechat
bug