Weather and climate are important considerations for tourists in selecting their destinations, and climate change may impact these decisions, with implications for economic revenue in tourism-dependent locations. In the Coachella Valley, a desert region in Southern California, the warm and dry climate during winter months attracts seasonal visitors from Canada and northern US states (“snowbirds”). However, global warming may adversely impact the snowbird season and other tourist attractions through rising temperatures. We analyzed how increasing temperatures are likely to impact three key components of the tourism industry in the region: climate in the winter snowbird season, visitation at an outdoor tourist attraction, and the likelihood of extreme heat at an annual festival. We used statistically downscaled climate models to make predictions about future visitation to the region by calculating changing probabilities of extreme heat during the tourist season and local events. Our analysis predicts a shortened snowbird season, which we define as the time of year with daily maximum temperatures below a threshold of 30 °C, under two future climate scenarios and time periods. We find a nonlinear relationship between daily maximum temperatures and daily zoo visits, where visitation sharply declines after a threshold of 30 °C. Using this threshold, we predict a decrease in zoo visitation by up to 18% and a shortening of the snowbird season by up to 36% by the end of the century. We also predict an increased likelihood of extreme heat stress during the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对加利福尼亚科切拉山谷旅游业的预计影响

天气和气候是游客选择目的地的重要考虑因素，气候变化可能会影响这些决定，对依赖旅游业的地区的经济收入产生影响。在南加州沙漠​​地区科切拉山谷，冬季温暖干燥的气候吸引了来自加拿大和美国北部各州的季节性游客（“雪鸟”）。然而，全球变暖可能会通过气温升高对雪鸟季节和其他旅游景点产生不利影响。我们分析了气温升高可能如何影响该地区旅游业的三个关键组成部分：冬季雪鸟季节的气候、户外旅游景点的参观以及一年一度的节日出现极端高温的可能性。我们使用统计上缩小的气候模型，通过计算旅游季节和当地事件期间极端高温的变化概率来预测该地区未来的访问量。我们的分析预测雪鸟季节会缩短，我们将其定义为一年中每日最高气温低于 30 °C 阈值的时间，在两种未来气候情景和时间段下。我们发现每日最高温度与每日动物园访问量之间存在非线性关系，其中访问量在 30 °C 阈值后急剧下降。使用这个阈值，我们预测到本世纪末，动物园的访问量将减少多达 18%，雪鸟季节将缩短多达 36%。我们还预测在科切拉谷音乐和艺术节期间出现极端热应激的可能性会增加。