Since global warming between 2 and 4.9 °C by 2100 is unlikely to be avoided, humans will have to live with and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Migration has long been touted as a strategy for adapting to climate change, but there is limited understanding of which aspects of climate change will have greatest influence on peoples’ decision to move somewhere they consider safer or stay somewhere safe. Here, we present results from two online surveys about mobility decisions from one low (Philippines) and one high (Australia) income country within the Asia-Pacific region with similar vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Online surveys with about 1100 respondents each were conducted in both countries. Results showed that natural hazards played a strong role in the mix of reasons for mobility, particularly in the Philippines. Sudden onset hazards had the greatest influence. Results of ordered probit models showed that the perception of personal damage from hazards was strongly positively associated with mobility decisions of respondents in both countries. Mobility decisions of people in Australia were further influenced by their experience with the specific hazards: those with greater experience of slow onset hazards were more likely, and those who had experience with sudden hazards less likely, to consider these when moving or staying somewhere. People in Australia might only react to sudden onset hazards with temporary relocation since experience had shown that they can adapt to them. This suggests that slow onset climate change related impacts such as heat waves and sea level rise, as well as environmental degradation and pollution, may have more sustained effects on long-term mobility than sudden events. In the Philippines, personal characteristics such as gender, income, and health had the greatest impact while experience with hazards had almost none.

中文翻译：

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风险和经验推动自然灾害对人们出行决策的重要性

由于到 2100 年全球变暖 2°C 至 4.9°C 不太可能避免，人类将不得不忍受并适应气候变化的影响。长期以来，移民一直被吹捧为适应气候变化的一种策略，但人们对气候变化的哪些方面将对人们决定搬到他们认为更安全的地方或留在安全的地方的决定产生最大影响的了解有限。在这里，我们展示了来自亚太地区一个低收入（菲律宾）和一个高收入国家（澳大利亚）的流动决策的两项在线调查结果，这些国家对自然灾害的脆弱性相似。在这两个国家都进行了大约 1100 名受访者的在线调查。结果表明，自然灾害在多种流动性原因中发挥了重要作用，尤其是在菲律宾。突发性危害的影响最大。有序概率模型的结果表明，对危险造成的人身伤害的感知与两国受访者的出行决策密切相关。澳大利亚人的出行决定进一步受到他们对特定危险的体验的影响：那些经历过缓慢发生危险的人更有可能，而那些经历过突发危险的人则不太可能在搬家或停留在某个地方时考虑这些。在澳大利亚，人们可能只会通过临时搬迁来应对突发的危险，因为经验表明他们可以适应这些危险。这表明缓慢发生的气候变化相关影响，如热浪和海平面上升，以及环境退化和污染，可能比突发事件对长期流动性产生更持久的影响。在菲律宾，性别、收入和健康等个人特征的影响最大，而灾害经历几乎没有。