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Modeling seasonal variation for mosquito-borne disease in the tropical monsoon environment
Advances in Difference Equations ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-04 , DOI: 10.1186/s13662-020-02807-6
Ting-Ting Zheng , Lin-Fei Nie , Zhidong Teng , Yantao Luo

Mosquitoes play an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Considering the sensitivity of mosquitoes’ aquatic stage to the seasonal shift, in this paper, we present a seasonally forced mosquito-borne epidemic model by incorporating mosquitoes’ aquatic stage (eggs, larvae, and pupae) and seasonal shift factor, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. Firstly, some sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free solution are obtained. Further, we define the basic reproduction number \(\mathcal{R}_{0}\), and obtain the stability of the disease-free solution when \(\mathcal{R}_{0}\) is less than one. And, if \(\mathcal{R}_{0}\) is greater than one, the mosquito-borne disease is uniformly persistent and the model admits a positive periodic solution. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. In addition, simulation results also imply that ignoring the effects of seasonal succession can overestimate or underestimate mosquito-borne disease trends.



中文翻译:

模拟热带季风环境中蚊媒疾病的季节性变化

蚊子在蚊媒疾病的传播中起着重要作用。考虑到蚊子的水生阶段对季节变化的敏感性,本文通过结合蚊子的水生阶段(卵,幼虫和p)和季节性变化因子,提出了一种季节性强迫蚊子传播的流行模型。不连续差分系统。首先,获得了无病溶液存在和唯一性的一些充分条件。此外,我们定义基本复制数\(\ mathcal {R} _ {0} \),并在\(\ mathcal {R} _ {0} \)小于1时获得无病溶液的稳定性。。并且,如果\(\ mathcal {R} _ {0} \)大于1时,蚊媒疾病会持续存在,并且该模型接受正周期解。最后,通过一些数值模拟来说明主要的理论结果。此外,模拟结果还暗示,忽略季节性演替的影响可能会高估或低估蚊媒疾病的趋势。

更新日期:2020-09-05
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