The growth and development of COVID-19 transmission have significantly attracted the attention of many societies, particularly Iran, that have been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In this study, the known “Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)” and some other mathematical approaches were used to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran’s official data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data. The results offer important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as the realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time and other characteristics. Besides, the effectiveness of infection and immunization rates to the number of infected people and epidemic end time are reported. Finally, different suggestions for decreasing victims are offered.

中文翻译：

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预测伊朗新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 流行的高峰和终止

自 2020 年 2 月下旬以来，COVID-19 传播的增长和发展极大地吸引了许多社会的关注，尤其是伊朗，这些社会一直在与这种传染性传染病作斗争。 )”和其他一些数学方法被用来研究 COVID-19 流行的动态，以提供对伊朗 COVID-19 病毒流行的适当评估。使用伊朗官方数据获得流行曲线和SIR模型参数。康复者与官方确认的受害者人数一起被视为可靠的长期统计数据。结果提供了对 COVID-19 病毒流行的重要预测，例如受害者的实际数量、感染率、高峰时间和其他特征。此外，报告了感染和免疫接种率对感染人数和流行结束时间的影响。最后，提出了减少受害者的不同建议。