Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present,WIREs Climate Change

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Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-03 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.673
Karlijn Muiderman _{1,

2} , Aarti Gupta ₁ , Joost Vervoort _{2,

3,

4} , Frank Biermann ₂

Affiliation

In times of accelerating earth system transformations and their potentially disruptive societal consequences, imagining and governing the future is now a core challenge for sustainability research and practice. Much social science and sustainability science scholarship increasingly engages with the future. There is, however, a lack of scrutiny of how the future is envisioned in these literatures, and with what implications for governance in the present. This article analyses these two aspects, building on the concept of “anticipatory governance.” We understand anticipatory governance to broadly mean governing in the present to adapt to or shape uncertain futures. We review perspectives within public policy, futures studies, social–ecological systems, environmental policy and governance, transition studies, science and technology studies, and responsible research and innovation literatures. All these literatures engage explicitly or implicitly with the notion of anticipatory governance, yet from distinct ontological and epistemological starting points. Through our review, we identify four approaches to anticipatory governance that differ with regard to (a) their conceptions of and engagement with the future; (b) their implications for actions to be taken in the present; and (c) the ultimate end to be realized through anticipatory governance. We then map onto these four approaches a diverse set of methods and tools of anticipation that each engages with. In concluding, we discuss how these four approaches provide a useful analytical lens through which to assess ongoing practices of anticipatory governance in the climate and sustainability realm.

中文翻译：

预期气候治理的四种方法：对未来的不同概念以及对当前的影响

在加速地球系统转换及其对社会的潜在破坏性后果的时代，对未来进行想象和管理现在已成为可持续性研究和实践的核心挑战。许多社会科学和可持续性科学奖学金越来越多地参与未来。但是，对于这些文献对未来的展望以及对目前的治理有何影响，我们缺乏审查。本文在“预期治理”概念的基础上分析了这两个方面。我们将预期治理理解为广义上的指当前治理以适应或塑造不确定的未来。我们回顾公共政策，未来研究，社会生态系统，环境政策与治理，转型研究，科学技术研究以及负责任的研究和创新文献中的观点。所有这些文献都从预期的本体论和认识论出发，明确或隐含地涉及预期治理的概念。通过我们的审查，我们确定了四种预期的治理方法，它们在以下方面有所不同：（a）对未来的概念和对未来的参与；（b）它们对目前采取的行动的影响；（c）最终目的通过预期治理来实现。然后，我们将这四种方法映射到这四种方法上，每种方法和工具都将参与其中。最后，我们讨论了这四种方法如何提供有用的分析视角，通过它们可以评估气候和可持续性领域中预期治理的现行实践。

更新日期：2020-10-11

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