Abstract

Despite the National Policy for Solid Waste (PNRS) in 2010, nothing has changed to waste disposal in Brazil. Planned to reach 100% of all Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) collected and treated in landfills by Aug. 2nd, 2014, until nowadays, 42% of this total remains in dumps. Even the most important national economic region treating its urban waste in landfills, what it has is no more than 4% of recycling and its landfills reaching the exhaustion. Building other ones is getting harder year by year, due to water reservoirs around the region, high freight costs, waste disposal and the severe control of emissions associated with its logistics. This article comes to break the paradigm of investment and profitability proposing an alternative to the land-use, achieving higher rates of recovering. The economic viability, carried out through well-known financial variables and Monte Carlo analysis, has taken into account proven local waste characteristics and market prices for recyclables and energy without subsidies. Even considered a proposal highly intensive in capital and people, the revenues from the sales would be enough to guarantee the viability of 100% equity with IRR of 33.7% and ROI of 24.5% per year within the confidence of 99%.

Graphic abstract

中文翻译：

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分析大规模的城市生活垃圾综合模型的经济可行性：以巴西最重要的经济区为例

摘要

尽管2010年制定了《国家固体废物政策（PNRS）》，但巴西的废物处置没有任何变化。计划到2014年8月2日达到垃圾填埋场收集和处理的所有城市固体废物（MSW）的100％，直到今天，这些废物中的42％仍然存在。即使是最重要的国家经济区，也要处理其垃圾填埋场中的城市废物，其回收率只有不到4％，并且垃圾填埋场已达到枯竭状态。由于该地区的水库，高昂的货运成本，废物处理以及与物流相关的排放的严格控制，建造其他建筑的难度越来越大。本文打破了投资和盈利模式，提出了土地使用的替代方案，以实现更高的回收率。经济上的可行性 通过众所周知的财务变量和蒙特卡洛分析进行的分析，已考虑到了已证明的当地废物特征以及可再生能源和无补贴市场价格。即使被认为是一项对资本和人员高度密集的提议，销售收入也足以保证100％股权的可行性，IRR为33.7％，ROI为24.5％，每年的置信度为99％。

图形摘要