The 27 November 2019 Mw 6.0 earthquake that occurred in the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc near Crete Island provided evidence of the high potential for strong earthquakes and active seismicity in the Hellenic Arc. In addition, tsunamis have been reported to occur for the region after major earthquakes in the historical past, so the seismic hazard of the Hellenic Arc should be evaluated in detail. The aim of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard of the Hellenic Arc more reliably and accurately by estimating the conditional probabilities of a strong earthquake based on Weibull, gamma, log-normal, exponential, Rayleigh, and inverse Gaussian distribution models for the inter-event time of Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes that occurred between 1900 and 2019 in the study area. The fit between each model and the data was tested using four different test criteria, namely the log-likelihood value, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criteria, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. According to the results, the inverse Gaussian distribution was selected as the best, the log-normal distribution as the second best, the Weibull and gamma distributions as intermediate, and the Rayleigh and exponential distribution as the poorest and second poorest model, respectively. The conditional probability of an earthquake with magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 is estimated to be higher than 0.70 according to all of the models used in this study for the base year te = 0 (te = 2015) and t > 5 years (t > 2020). Moreover, the results obtained based on the inverse Gaussian, exponential, log-normal, and Weibull distribution models are close to each other and are higher than 0.60 for te = 0 and t ≥ 3 years (t ≥ 2018). The outcomes of this study when using the different distribution models will contribute to assessments of the seismic as well as tsunami hazards for the region.

中文翻译：

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基于不同分布模型的希腊弧形地震条件概率

2019 年 11 月 27 日发生在克里特岛附近希腊弧西南部的 Mw 6.0 地震提供了证据，证明希腊弧内发生强地震和活跃地震活动的可能性很高。此外，该地区历史上曾有大地震发生后发生海啸的报道，因此应详细评估希腊弧的地震危险性。本研究的目的是通过基于威布尔、伽马、对数正态、指数、瑞利和逆高斯分布模型估计强地震的条件概率，更可靠、更准确地评估希腊弧的地震危险性。 -研究区1900年至2019年间发生的Mw≥6.0级地震的事件时间。每个模型与数据之间的拟合使用四种不同的测试标准进行测试，即对数似然值、Akaike 信息标准、贝叶斯信息标准和 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验。根据结果​​，分别选择逆高斯分布为最佳，对数正态分布为次佳，威布尔和伽马分布为中间，瑞利和指数分布分别为最差和次差的模型。根据本研究中使用的所有模型，在基准年 te = 0 (te = 2015) 和 t > 5 年 (t > 2020) 时，估计 Mw ≥ 6.0 地震的条件概率高于 0.70 . 而且，基于逆高斯、指数、对数正态得到的结果，和 Weibull 分布模型彼此接近，在 te = 0 和 t ≥ 3 年（t ≥ 2018）时高于 0.60。本研究在使用不同分布模型时的结果将有助于评估该地区的地震和海啸灾害。