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Modeling the effect of literacy and social media advertisements on the dynamics of infectious diseases
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Pub Date : 2020-09-02 , DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020311
Rajanish Kumar Rai 1 , Pankaj Kumar Tiwari 2 , Yun Kang 3 , Arvind Kumar Misra 4
Affiliation  

Education empowers humans and gets them ready to face challenges of life efficiently. Literacy and social media campaigns make people aware of the tools and techniques requisite for protection against the emerging diseases. In this paper, we investigate the combined impacts of literacy and social media on the dynamics of infectious diseases spreading through direct contact. Normalized forward sensitivity indices explore the impacts of parameters on basic reproduction number. We perform global sensitivity analysis for the infective population with respect to some controllable epidemiologically important parameters. If the growth rate of broadcasting informations through social media is very high, the system shows limit cycle oscillations. On the other hand, the baseline number of social media advertisements stabilize the system by evacuating persistent oscillations and ultimately settling the system from stable endemic equilibrium to stable disease-free state. The dissemination of awareness among literate people also suppresses the prevalence of limit cycle oscillations and drives the system to disease-free zone. An extension in model is made by assuming the growth rate of social media advertisements as periodic function of time. The simulation results show that the nonautonomous system showcases periodic as well as higher periodic solutions on the increase in the growth rate of advertisements. Our results evoke that media and education play a tremendous role in mounting awareness among the population leading to elimination of disease in the society.

中文翻译:

模拟识字和社交媒体广告对传染病动态的影响

教育赋予了人类权力,使他们准备好有效面对生活的挑战。扫盲和社交媒体运动使人们意识到预防新兴疾病所必需的工具和技术。在本文中,我们研究了识字和社交媒体对通过直接接触传播的传染病动态的综合影响。归一化的前向敏感性指数探讨了参数对基本繁殖数的影响。我们针对某些可控制的流行病学重要参数对感染人群进行全球敏感性分析。如果通过社交媒体广播信息的增长率非常高,则系统将显示极限周期振荡。另一方面,社交媒体广告的基准数量是通过撤消持续的波动并最终使系统从稳定的流行均衡平衡到稳定的无病状态来稳定系统的。在有文化的人群中传播意识也抑制了极限循环振荡的流行,并使系统进入了无病区。通过假设社交媒体广告的增长率是时间的周期性函数来对模型进行扩展。仿真结果表明,非自治系统在广告增长率方面具有周期性以及较高的周期性解。我们的研究结果表明,媒体和教育在提高民众意识,导致消除社会疾病方面发挥着巨大作用。
更新日期:2020-09-02
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