The pig market had experienced a cycle of price rise and fall, also known as the “pig cycle.” This paper analyzes the fluctuation relationship between pig price, pig supply, and pork demand, constructs a system dynamics model of the pig industry by decomposing the structure of the pig supply chain, and then discusses the causes of “pig cycle,” as well as the supply chain management strategy and industrial policy, to stabilize the pig industry market. Research shows that reducing the cost of pig breeding, countercyclical adjustment, and government macrocontrol can effectively reduce the fluctuation of pig prices. Among them, reducing the pig breeding cost is the most effective long-term strategy to stabilize the pig price.

中文翻译：

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生猪周期供应链供需新均衡策略

生猪市场经历了价格上涨和下跌的周期，也称为“猪周期”。本文分析了生猪价格，生猪供应和生猪需求之间的波动关系，通过分解生猪供应链的结构来构建生猪业的系统动力学模型，然后讨论了生猪周期的成因，以及供应链管理战略和产业政策，稳定生猪行业市场。研究表明，降低生猪养殖成本，反周期调整和政府宏观调控可以有效减少生猪价格波动。其中，降低生猪养殖成本是稳定生猪价格的最有效的长期策略。