ABSTRACT

Regional forest planning does not often progress as desired because it involves multiple decision-makers who tend to manage their own forest stands individually. This study aimed to propose a licnear programming model to maximize the integrated net present value (NPV) of forest ecosystem services at a regional scale with multiple decision-makers. The model uses a matrix comprising forest state transition rates to simulate decision-making in individual forest stands; it also aims to identify optimal solutions for forest zoning and subsidies to enhance wood production. Herein, the model’s validity was evaluated using hypothetical data. The maximum NPV was estimated for different weightings of the transition matrix. Wood production and two other ecosystem services affected by forest age and geographical conditions were evaluated against a monetary base. Using the hypothetical data, the model proposed an optimal weight and zoning allocation that increased the NPV by approximately $3.1\times {10}^8$ JPY. Therefore, this model can propose optimized zoning via controlling the transition probabilities of regional forests.

摘要

区域森林规划通常不会取得理想的进展，因为它涉及多个决策者，他们倾向于单独管理自己的林分。这项研究旨在提出一个线性规划模型，以在具有多个决策者的区域范围内最大化森林生态系统服务的综合净现值（NPV）。该模型使用一个包含森林状态转换率的矩阵来模拟各个林分的决策。它还旨在确定森林分区和补贴的最佳解决方案，以提高木材产量。在此，使用假设数据评估模型的有效性。对于过渡矩阵的不同权重，估计了最大NPV。根据货币基础评估了受森林年龄和地理条件影响的木材生产和其他两个生态系统服务。该模型使用假设数据提出了最佳权重和分区分配方案，该方案将净现值提高了约$3.1\times {10}^8$日元。因此，该模型可以通过控制区域森林的过渡概率来提出优化分区。