In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. The pre-lock down value of ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. Using this analysis, we project the epidemic curve. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid-September, 2020, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700, 000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July, 2020, with the maximum active cases being around 120, 000. We note that social distancing measures and medication will help flatten the curve; however, without the reintroduction of further lock down, it would be very difficult to make ${\mathcal{R}}_0<1$.

在这项研究中，我们估计了放松禁区限制前后，巴基斯坦COVID-19爆发的严重性。我们还考虑了实际的隔离，社会隔离和可能的用药情况，预测了流行曲线。的预锁定值${\mathcal{[R}}_0$估计为1.07，后锁定值估计为1.86。使用此分析，我们预测了流行曲线。我们注意到，如果不做出重大努力来遏制该流行病，它将在2020年9月中旬达到顶峰，预计最大的活跃病例将接近700,000。在现实的最佳情况下，我们预计该流行病在2020年7月上旬至中旬达到峰值，最大活跃病例在120,000左右。我们注意到，社会疏离措施和药物治疗将使曲线趋于平坦。但是，如果不重新引入进一步的锁定，将很难做到${\mathcal{[R}}_0<\mathrm{1个}$。