In high‐resolution numerical modeling, cloud microphysics schemes can affect the forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) by controlling the phase changes of water. The simulated TC characteristics such as motion, intensity, and structure can change depending on the number of hydrometeors used in these schemes. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of real‐time track and intensity forecasts of TCs to cloud microphysics schemes using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For the sensitivity test, we selected WRF‐single‐moment‐microphysics Class 3 (WSM3) and Class 6 (WSM6) schemes as simple and sophisticated schemes, respectively. A total of 20 forecasts for 10 TCs were conducted. For TCs moving westward in the subtropics, track forecasts were similar in the different sensitivity tests, although the WSM6 scheme considerably reduced the TC intensity errors. However, for TCs moving to the midlatitudes, the WSM6 scheme improved both track and intensity prediction compared to the WSM3 scheme. Particularly, track errors were prominently reduced by the WSM6 scheme, which realistically captured westward shifted track during the rapid intensification process. This can be attributed to the improved simulations of TC intensity, size, and associated β effect by WSM6 scheme. In contrast, the WSM3 scheme underestimated the above characteristics due to low latent heat release compared to the WSM6 scheme. Consequently, TC track moving northwestward was unreasonably shifted eastward. This indicates that a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme is necessary to improve the track and intensity forecasts for TCs moving to the midlatitudes.

中文翻译：

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云微物理方案对北太平洋西部热带气旋预报的影响

在高分辨率数值建模中，云微物理方案可以通过控制水的相变来影响热带气旋（TC）的预测。诸如运动，强度和结构之类的模拟TC特性可以根据这些方案中使用的水凝物的数量而变化。在这项研究中，我们使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型调查了TC实时跟踪和强度预报对云微物理方案的敏感性。对于灵敏度测试，我们分别选择了WRF单矩微物理学Class 3（WSM3）和Class 6（WSM6）方案作为简单方案和复杂方案。总共对10个TC进行了20次预报。对于在亚热带向西移动的TC，在不同的敏感性测试中，航迹预测相似，尽管WSM6方案大大降低了TC强度误差。但是，对于移动到中纬度的TC，与WSM3方案相比，WSM6方案改善了航迹和强度预测。特别是，WSM6方案显着减少了轨道错误，该方案在快速强化过程中​​实际上捕获了向西移动的轨道。这可以归因于WSM6方案对TC强度，大小以及相关的β效应的改进模拟。相反，与WSM6方案相比，由于低潜热释放，WSM3方案低估了上述特性。因此，TC轨道向西北移动是不合理地向东移动。这表明，必须有一套完善的云微物理方案，才能改善向中纬度地区移动的热带气旋的航迹和强度预报。