Fragility functions express the probability that an asset exceeds some serviceability or limit state for a given level of environmental perturbation or other loadings, to which the asset is subjected. They are important components in the quantitative risk analysis of infrastructure exposed to natural hazards and they have typically been derived for structural assets. It is relatively difficult to derive fragility functions for geotechnical assets, such as highway or railway slopes and embankments, due to their inherent heterogeneity. In this paper, a generic granular highway embankment is modelled using the finite element method, considering various groundwater profiles and scour depths at the toe to quantify the deformation of the road surface. A probabilistic assessment of the magnitude of deformation and the groundwater level and scour depth is undertaken to derive fragility functions for the prediction of damage to assets exposed to these multiple hazards. The process of fragility function derivation is explained, uncertainty values are derived, and various regression methods are undertaken. This study is a first attempt to provide a basis for the prediction of slope deformation, and hence of damage, due to moisture ingress and scour, which can be aggravated by climate change. This can be used for the assessment of existing assets, and the design of new ones in the pursuit of more resilient transport networks, as well as for other assets such as levees, dams and other similar earthworks, with some limitations.

脆弱性函数表示资产超过给定水平的环境扰动或其他负荷所承受的资产超过某些可使用性或极限状态的可能性。它们是对遭受自然灾害的基础设施进行定量风险分析的重要组成部分，通常是针对结构资产而衍生的。由于土工资产固有的异质性，因此很难为其推导出诸如公路或铁路边坡和路堤之类的岩土资产的脆弱性函数。在本文中，使用有限元方法对通用的粒状公路路堤进行建模，其中考虑了各种地下水剖面和脚趾的冲刷深度，以量化路面的变形。对变形量，地下水位和冲刷深度进行概率评估，以得出脆弱性函数，以预测遭受这些多重危害的资产的损害。解释了脆弱性函数的推导过程，推导了不确定性值，并采取了各种回归方法。这项研究是首次尝试，为预测由于水分进入和冲刷而引起的边坡变形以及因此而造成的破坏提供了基础，气候变化会加剧这种情况。这可用于评估现有资产，并设计新的资产以追求更具弹性的运输网络，以及用于某些资产（例如，堤坝，水坝和其他类似的土方工程），但有一定的局限性。