当前位置: X-MOL 学术Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Beyond ESPREssO - Integrative Risk Assessment 2025 Synergies and gaps in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101817
J. Hemmers , S. Pickl , R. Schwarze , B. Thiebes , T. Loreth , G. Zuccaro

Climate change including the more frequent occurrence and increased intensity of extreme climate events are important drivers of disaster events. This causality is accompanied by the fact that long-term impacts of climate change are connected with a high-level of uncertainty: complex interactions, feedback loops and underlying nonlinear effects that describe the consequences in this dynamic context.

Special modelling approaches are required to increase understanding of these connections with climate change and related global issues, like environmental, social, economic and political matters. Resilience is a concept that can be used when tackling climate change impacts and decrease vulnerabilities. The holistic concept goes parallel with the understanding of “managing risks instead of managing disasters”!

This contribution elaborates now this line of thought and characterizes a risk-oriented modelling and design-oriented perspective. We present overviews on climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR), respectively, and the related frameworks and methods. Finally, we consider the links between the ESPREssO project with the PLACARD experience as coordination action. Similarities and differences are characterized in detail. Based on this specific comparison, we propose a solution-oriented approach which might overcome the distinctions regarding the different approaches of the projects towards a transformational resilience management perspective, summarizing synergies and gaps as an example for integrative risk assessment beyond ESPREssO.

We conclude with a comprehensive framework based on the 5 priority areas (referred as “mission”, terminology introduced in the Horizon Europe Framework) included in the final document of ESPREssO, which could be seen as an example for an integrative risk management combining quantitative and qualitative approaches.



中文翻译:

超越ESPREssO-2025年综合风险评估在气候变化适应和减少灾害风险方面的协同作用和差距

气候变化,包括更频繁发生的极端气候事件和日益加剧的强度,是灾难事件的重要驱动力。这种因果关系伴随着这样一个事实,即气候变化的长期影响与高度的不确定性有关:复杂的相互作用,反馈回路和描述在这种动态背景下后果的潜在非线性影响。

需要特殊的建模方法来加深对与气候变化和相关全球问题(如环境,社会,经济和政治问题)之间的联系的了解。复原力是在应对气候变化影响和减少脆弱性时可以使用的概念。整体概念与“管理风险而不是管理灾难”的理解平行!

现在,这一贡献体现了这一思路,并体现了面向风险的建模和面向设计的观点。我们分别概述了气候变化适应(CCA)和减少灾害风险(DRR)以及相关的框架和方法。最后,我们将ESPREssO项目与PLACARD经验之间的联系视为协调行动。相似性和差异性被详细描述。在此特定比较的基础上,我们提出了一种面向解决方案的方法,该方法可能会克服项目的不同方法在转变弹性管理方面的区别,总结出协同作用和差距,作为ESPREssO以外的综合风险评估的一个示例。

我们以ESPREssO最终文件中包含的5个优先领域(称为“任务”,Horizo​​n欧洲框架中引入的术语)为基础,建立了一个全面的框架,该框架可被视为结合了定量和风险分析的集成风险管理的一个示例。定性方法。

更新日期:2020-09-29
down
wechat
bug