Abstract Over the past decade, there is increasing interest in the ways in which environmental unpredictability shapes human life history development. However, progress is hindered by two theoretical ambiguities. The first is that conceptual definitions of environmental unpredictability are not precise enough to be able to express them in statistical terms. The second is that there are different implicit hypotheses about the proximate mechanisms that detect unpredictability, which have not been explicitly described and compared. The first is the ancestral cue perspective, which proposes that humans evolved to detect cues (e.g., loss of a parent, residential changes) that indicated high environmental unpredictability across evolutionary history. The second is the statistical learning perspective, which proposes that organisms estimate the level of unpredictability from lived experiences across development (e.g., prediction errors encountered through time). In this paper, we address both sources of ambiguity. First, we describe the possible statistical properties of unpredictability. Second, we outline the ancestral cue and statistical learning perspectives and their implications for the measurement of environmental unpredictability. Our goal is to provide concrete steps toward better conceptualization and measurement of environmental unpredictability from both approaches. Doing so will refine our understanding of environmental unpredictability and its connection to life history development.

中文翻译：

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环境不可预测性的理论与测量

摘要 在过去的十年中，人们对环境不可预测性影响人类生活史发展的方式越来越感兴趣。然而，进展受到两个理论歧义的阻碍。首先是环境不可预测性的概念定义不够精确，无法用统计术语表达它们。第二个是关于检测不可预测性的近似机制存在不同的隐含假设，尚未明确描述和比较。第一个是祖先线索的观点，它提出人类进化来检测线索（例如，失去父母、居住变化），这些线索表明整个进化历史中环境的高度不可预测性。二是统计学习视角，它提出生物体从整个发展过程中的生活经历中估计不可预测性的水平（例如，随着时间的推移遇到的预测错误）。在本文中，我们解决了歧义的两个来源。首先，我们描述了不可预测性的可能统计特性。其次，我们概述了祖先线索和统计学习的观点及其对环境不可预测性测量的影响。我们的目标是提供具体步骤，以从这两种方法中更好地概念化和测量环境不可预测性。这样做将完善我们对环境不可预测性及其与生活史发展联系的理解。我们解决了歧义的两个来源。首先，我们描述了不可预测性的可能统计特性。其次，我们概述了祖先线索和统计学习的观点及其对环境不可预测性测量的影响。我们的目标是提供具体步骤，以从这两种方法中更好地概念化和测量环境不可预测性。这样做将完善我们对环境不可预测性及其与生活史发展联系的理解。我们解决了歧义的两个来源。首先，我们描述了不可预测性的可能统计特性。其次，我们概述了祖先线索和统计学习的观点及其对环境不可预测性测量的影响。我们的目标是提供具体步骤，以从这两种方法中更好地概念化和测量环境不可预测性。这样做将完善我们对环境不可预测性及其与生活史发展联系的理解。我们的目标是提供具体步骤，以从这两种方法中更好地概念化和测量环境不可预测性。这样做将完善我们对环境不可预测性及其与生活史发展联系的理解。我们的目标是提供具体步骤，以从这两种方法中更好地概念化和测量环境不可预测性。这样做将完善我们对环境不可预测性及其与生活史发展联系的理解。