Mediterranean forests play a key role in providing services and goods to society, and are currently threatened by global change. We assessed the future provision of ecosystem services by Mediterranean pine forests under a set of management and climate change scenarios, built by combining different regional policies and climate change assumptions. We used the process-based model SORTIE-ND to simulate forest dynamics under each scenario. We coupled the outputs of SORTIE-ND with empirical and process-based models to estimate changes in harvested timber, carbon storage, mushroom yield, water provision, soil erosion mitigation and habitat for biodiversity by 2100, and assessed the trade-offs and synergies between services. Our results suggest that future provision of ecosystem services by Mediterranean forests will be more strongly determined by management policies than by climate. However, no management policy maximized the provision of all services. The continuation of the business-as-usual management would benefit some services to the detriment of water provision, but leads to higher vulnerability to extreme drought-events or wildfires. Managing for reducing forest vulnerability will balance the provision of services while reducing the risk of damage to forest functioning. We also found multiple spatial synergies between ecosystem services provision, likely driven by differences in site productivity.

地中海森林在为社会提供服务和商品方面发挥着关键作用，目前正受到全球变化的威胁。我们通过结合不同的区域政策和气候变化假设，在一系列管理和气候变化情景下评估了地中海松树林对生态系统服务的未来提供。我们使用基于过程的模型SORTIE-ND来模拟每种情况下的森林动态。我们将SORTIE-ND的输出与基于经验和基于过程的模型相结合，以估计到2100年采伐木材，碳储量，蘑菇产量，水供应，土壤侵蚀减轻和生物多样性栖息地的变化，并评估了两者之间的权衡和协同作用服务。我们的结果表明，地中海森林未来提供生态系统服务将更受管理政策而非气候的影响。但是，没有管理策略可以最大限度地提供所有服务。继续照常经营将有利于某些服务，不利于水的供应，但导致在极端干旱事件或野火中的脆弱性更高。为减少森林脆弱性而进行的管理将平衡服务的提供，同时减少破坏森林功能的风险。我们还发现，生态系统服务提供之间可能存在多种空间协同效应，这可能是由于站点生产力的差异所致。继续照常经营将有利于某些服务，不利于水的供应，但导致在极端干旱事件或野火中的脆弱性更高。为减少森林脆弱性而进行的管理将平衡服务的提供，同时减少破坏森林功能的风险。我们还发现，生态系统服务提供之间可能存在多种空间协同效应，这可能是由于站点生产力的差异所致。继续照常经营将有利于某些服务，不利于水的供应，但导致在极端干旱事件或野火中的脆弱性更高。为减少森林脆弱性而进行的管理将平衡服务的提供，同时减少破坏森林功能的风险。我们还发现，生态系统服务提供之间可能存在多种空间协同效应，这可能是由于站点生产力的差异所致。