This paper proposes a new approach to the design of natural gas network expansion under load evolution uncertainty in a time horizon. A predefined network topology is assumed with pipe diameters as the design variables. A dedicated optimization tool is developed so as to find not only an estimate of the optimal network, but also a set of local optimal ones, for a given most probable scenario. A Monte-Carlo simulation of the future load conditions is performed, evaluating each solution within a set of other possible scenarios. A dominance analysis is performed to compare the candidate solutions, considering the objectives of smaller installation cost, smaller infeasibility rate, smaller mean fault-cost and smaller sensitivity. A real case study is conducted concerning the design of a gas network by three engineers with 6 years of experience, on average, in the design office of a gas utility company; and their results are compared against the ones obtained from the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed approach leads to networks that can be rather different from those obtained using a conventional, time consuming, design procedure, reaching more robust performances under load evolution uncertainties.

本文提出了一种在时间范围内负荷演化不确定的天然气网络扩展设计新方法。假定使用管径作为设计变量的预定义网络拓扑。开发了专用的优化工具，以便针对给定的最可能方案，不仅找到最佳网络的估计值，而且找到一组局部最佳网络。对未来的负载情况进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，在一组其他可能的情况下评估了每个解决方案。考虑到较小的安装成本，较小的不可行率，较小的平均故障成本和较小的灵敏度，执行优势分析以比较候选解决方案。由三位具有6年经验的工程师进行了有关燃气网络设计的真实案例研究，平均而言，在一家燃气公司的设计办公室内；并将其结果与从建议的方法中获得的结果进行比较。结果表明，所提出的方法所导致的网络可能与使用常规，耗时的设计程序获得的网络完全不同，在负载演化不确定性的情况下达到了更强大的性能。