The traditional multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) method for the conceptual design of the solid rocket motor (SRM) is usually deterministic and seldom focuses on systematic design optimization. This paper develops a systematic design model of the SRM with a finocyl grain and proposes an approach for uncertainty analysis and design optimization of SRM. The mean value and standard deviation of the target function, as well as the probability that the constraints can be met, are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) analysis. The uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization (UMDO), together with the deterministic multidisciplinary design optimization (DMDO), is applied to the conceptual design of SRM based on the third-stage engine ZEFIRO9 of the Vega launch vehicle. By main effect diagrams and Pareto diagrams, the most influential design variables and standard deviation of uncertain parameters are obtained, which can help designers understand more of the uncertainty relationships between parameters and system performance.

用于固体火箭发动机（SRM）概念设计的传统多学科设计优化（MDO）方法通常是确定性的，很少关注系统设计优化。本文建立了一个具有finocyl颗粒的SRM系统设计模型，并提出了一种不确定性分析和SRM设计优化的方法。使用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）分析计算目标函数的平均值和标准偏差，以及可以满足约束的概率。基于不确定性的多学科设计优化（UMDO）与确定性多学科设计优化（DMDO）一起，被用于基于Vega运载火箭的第三级发动机ZEFIRO9的SRM的概念设计。通过主要效果图和帕累托图，