The gas outburst, resulting in substantial economic losses and even casualties, is the biggest obstacle in coal mines, mostly caused by an imbalance of gas-geological structure. For accurately measuring this proneness, in this paper, a novel evaluation method was proposed based on the gas-geology theory. In this method, a standardization model of statistical units was presented first, which was used to standardize and quantify the 12 chosen gas-geological factors; and then, an associated function was established for computing the gas-geological complexity index (GCI). With increasing GCI values, the evaluated area was divided into four grades: simple, medium, complex, and extremely complex region, in which the associated proneness of outbursts was SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH, STRONG, respectively. Taking the XueHu Coal Mine as an example, site verification was carried out with a good result. Research and application indicate that (1) gas outburst is unbalanced and closely related to the complex of the gas geological structure, showing a greater GCI leads to a higher outburst possibility; (2) the most likely area for the gas outburst is the extremely complex region and the transition zone between adjacent areas with different GCI grades; (3) upgrading-targeted control measures are the best way for preventing and controlling disasters caused by the gas and outburst unbalanced distribution. This novel method provided a reliable quantity approach for predicting and zonally managing gas outbursts and improving the effectiveness of outbursts prevention.

瓦斯突出，造成巨大的经济损失，甚至造成人员伤亡，是煤矿的最大障碍，主要是由于瓦斯地质结构失衡造成的。为了准确测量这种倾向性，本文基于天然气地质理论提出了一种新的评价方法。在这种方法中，首先提出了统计单位的标准化模型，该模型用于标准化和量化所选择的12种天然气地质因素。然后，建立了一个关联函数来计算天然气地质复杂度指数（GCI）。随着GCI值的增加，评估区域分为四个等级：简单，中等，复杂和极复杂的区域，其中与爆发相关的倾向分别为安全，潜在，高，强。以雪湖煤矿为例，现场验证取得了良好的效果。研究与应用表明：（1）瓦斯突出不平衡，与瓦斯地质构造复杂程度密切相关，表明GCI越大，瓦斯突出可能性越大；（2）瓦斯突出的最可能区域是极复杂的区域和具有不同GCI等级的相邻区域之间的过渡带; （3）以升级为目标的控制措施是预防和控制由瓦斯和突出不平衡分布引起的灾害的最佳方法。这种新颖的方法为预测和分区管理瓦斯突出提供了可靠的数量方法，并提高了防突出效果。研究与应用表明：（1）瓦斯突出不平衡，与瓦斯地质构造复杂程度密切相关，表明GCI越大，瓦斯突出可能性越大；（2）瓦斯突出的最可能区域是极其复杂的区域以及具有不同GCI等级的相邻区域之间的过渡带; （3）以升级为目标的控制措施是预防和控制由瓦斯和突出不平衡分布引起的灾害的最佳方法。这种新颖的方法为预测和分区管理瓦斯突出提供了可靠的数量方法，并提高了防突出效果。研究与应用表明：（1）瓦斯突出不平衡，与瓦斯地质构造复杂程度密切相关，表明GCI越大，瓦斯突出可能性越大；（2）瓦斯突出的最可能区域是极复杂的区域和具有不同GCI等级的相邻区域之间的过渡带; （3）以升级为目标的控制措施是预防和控制由瓦斯和突出物不平衡分配引起的灾害的最佳方法。这种新颖的方法为预测和分区管理瓦斯突出提供了可靠的数量方法，并提高了防突出效果。（2）瓦斯突出的最可能区域是极复杂的区域和具有不同GCI等级的相邻区域之间的过渡带; （3）以升级为目标的控制措施是预防和控制由瓦斯和突出物不平衡分配引起的灾害的最佳方法。这种新颖的方法为预测和分区管理瓦斯突出提供了可靠的数量方法，并提高了防突出效果。（2）瓦斯突出的最可能区域是极其复杂的区域以及具有不同GCI等级的相邻区域之间的过渡带; （3）以升级为目标的控制措施是预防和控制由瓦斯和突出不平衡分布引起的灾害的最佳方法。这种新颖的方法为预测和分区管理瓦斯突出提供了可靠的数量方法，并提高了防突出效果。