Purpose

This paper aims to solve the problem that pipes conveying fluid are faced with severe reliability failures under the complicated working environment.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a dynamic reliability and variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) strategy with non-probabilistic convex model for pipes conveying fluid based on the first passage principle failure mechanism. To illustrate the influence of input uncertainty on output uncertainty of non-probability, the main index and the total index of variance-based GSA analysis are used. Furthermore, considering the efficiency of traditional simulation method, an active learning Kriging surrogate model is introduced to estimate the dynamic reliability and GSA indices of the structure system under random vibration.

Findings

The variance-based GSA analysis can measure the effect of input variables of convex model on the dynamic reliability, which provides useful reference and guidance for the design and optimization of pipes conveying fluid. For designers, the rankings and values of main and total indices have essential guiding role in engineering practice.

Originality/value

The effectiveness of the proposed method to calculate the dynamic reliability and sensitivity of pipes conveying fluid while ensuring the calculation accuracy and efficiency in the meantime.

中文翻译：

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具有随机变量和凸变量的管道输送流体的动态可靠性和基于方差的全局灵敏度分析

目的

本文旨在解决输送流体的管道在复杂的工作环境下面临严重的可靠性故障的问题。

设计/方法/方法

本文基于第一通道原理失效机制，提出了一种具有非概率凸模型的动态可靠性和基于方差的全局灵敏度分析（GSA）策略，用于输送流体的管道。为了说明输入不确定性对非概率输出不确定性的影响，使用基于方差的GSA分析的主要指标和总指标。此外，考虑到传统仿真方法的效率，引入主动学习克里金代理模型来估计随机振动下结构系统的动态可靠性和GSA指标。

发现

基于方差的GSA分析可以衡量凸模型的输入变量对动态可靠性的影响，为输送流体管道的设计和优化提供有益的参考和指导。对于设计者来说，主要指标和总指标的排序和取值对工程实践具有重要的指导作用。

原创性/价值

所提方法在保证计算精度和效率的同时计算输送流体管道动态可靠性和灵敏度的有效性。