Abstract What does it mean that something is probably obligatory? And how does it relate to the probability that it is permitted or prohibited? In this paper, we provide a possible answer by merging deontic argumentation and probabilistic argumentation into a probabilistic deontic argumentation framework. This framework allows us to specify a semantics for the probability of deontic statuses. The deontic argumentation part builds on standard concepts from the study of computational models of argument: rule-based arguments, argumentation graphs, argument labelling semantics and statement labelling semantics. We then encapsulate this deontic composition with the approach of probabilistic labellings to probabilistic argumentation, in order to associate deontic statements with probability values. The framework is illustrated with a scenario featuring a violation and a contrary-to-duty obligation.

中文翻译：

---

概率道义论证框架

摘要 某事可能是强制性的是什么意思？它与被允许或禁止的可能性有什么关系？在本文中，我们通过将道义论证和概率论证合并到概率道义论证框架中来提供一个可能的答案。该框架允许我们为道义状态的概率指定语义。道义论证部分建立在研究论证计算模型的标准概念之上：基于规则的论证、论证图、论证标签语义和陈述标签语义。然后，我们用概率论的概率标记方法封装了这个道义组合，以便将道义陈述与概率值相关联。