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Improving geostatistical predictions of two environmental variables using Bayesian maximum entropy in the Sungun mining site
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-31 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01863-4
Safoura Rezaei , Enayatollah Ranjineh Khojasteh , Morovvat Faridazad

In this paper, the spatial distributions and temporal changes of electrical conductivity (EC) and pH in the Sungun mining area (in the East Azarbayjan province, Iran) were assessed. These variables were measured in 2005 in three parts of the mine considered for: the mining pit, waste dump, and tailings dam. A follow-up study was devised in 2016 with a new sampling round, at almost the same locations to examine the environmental status of the study area and its changes during this time interval. First, the general statistical evaluations were conducted. After distribution assessments and spatial variability modeling, the EC and pH were predicted at unsampled locations using three geostatistical methods of kriging, Sequential Gaussian Simulation, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). BME can also efficiently take the soft information into account. Moreover, the predicted variables and their estimation variances were mapped using these methods. The hazardable zones on these maps were also noted.



中文翻译:

利用Sungun采矿场中的贝叶斯最大熵改进两个环境变量的地统计学预测

本文评估了Sungun矿区(伊朗东部阿扎尔巴扬省)的电导率(EC)和pH值的空间分布和时间变化。这些变量是在2005年对矿山的三个部分进行测量的:采矿坑,废料堆和尾矿坝。2016年进行了一项后续研究,在几乎相同的地点进行了新一轮的采样,以检查研究区域的环境状况及其在此时间间隔内的变化。首先,进行了总体统计评估。经过分布评估和空间变异性建模后,使用克里金法,序贯高斯模拟和贝叶斯最大熵(BME)的三种地统计方法预测了未采样位置的EC和pH。BME还可以有效地考虑软信息。此外,使用这些方法映射了预测变量及其估计方差。还指出了这些地图上的危险区域。

更新日期:2020-08-31
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