Climate change is threatening food security in many tropical countries, where a large proportion of food is produced by vulnerable smallholder farmers. Interventions are available to offset many of the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, and they can be tailored to local conditions often through relative modest investments. However, little quantitative information is available to guide investment or policy choices at a time when countries and development agencies are under pressure to implement policies that can help achieve Sustainable Development Goals while coping with climate change. Among smallholder adaptation options, developing seeds resilient to current and future climate shocks expected locally is one of the most important actions available now. In this paper, we used national and local data to estimate the costs of climate change to smallholder farmers in Malawi and Tanzania. We found that the benefits from adopting resilient seeds ranged between 984 million and 2.1 billion USD during 2020–2050. Our analysis demonstrates the benefits of establishing and maintaining a flexible national seed sector with participation by communities in the breeding, delivery, and adoption cycle.

中文翻译：

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气候适应性种子对撒哈拉以南非洲小农适应的价值

气候变化正在威胁许多热带国家的粮食安全，这些国家的大部分粮食是由脆弱的小农生产的。干预措施可以抵消气候变化对农业的许多负面影响，而且通常可以通过相对适度的投资来适应当地条件。然而，在各国和发展机构面临实施有助于实现可持续发展目标同时应对气候变化的政策的压力之际，可用于指导投资或政策选择的定量信息很少。在小农适应选择中，开发能够抵御当地当前和未来气候冲击的种子是目前最重要的行动之一。在本文中，我们使用国家和地方数据来估算马拉维和坦桑尼亚小农户的气候变化成本。我们发现，在 2020 年至 2050 年期间，采用弹性种子的收益介于 9.84 亿至 21 亿美元之间。我们的分析表明，在社区参与育种、交付和采用周期的情况下，建立和维护灵活的国家种子部门的好处。